3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2019 AFL Season.

We’ll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won’t always just be who will win.

COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG

One of the highest quality matches in prospect for the opening round is the Friday night blockbuster.

In fact it is the only clash to begin the season between two finalists from 2018.

Both teams surely have high hopes for the year ahead, and whether they realistic or not, their lists substantiate that fact.

When your teams include the ilk of Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Grundy and now with Dayne Beams back for Collingwood and then opposing them Ablett, Sellwood, Hawkins and Dangerfield for Geelong, there are stars at all ends of the ground.

Collingwood have that nasty taste in their mouth from the last game they played.

After the now famous chain of West Coast kicks that led to Dom Sheed’s match winning kick for goal, Pies fans can be forgiven for erasing any 2018 tapes with three minutes to go.

And that becomes their issue essentially for the whole season. What impact does coming so close to the greatest success have on needing to repeat that effort over another entire campaign.

Some Grand Finallists in recent years have not been able to even make the finals, leave alone contend. We saw Adelaide implode just last year. Climbing the mountain can be as tough as simply backing it up.

Collingwood do seem to be stronger it must be said. Dayne Beams, back from Brisbane, is one of the better players in the comp still and one of the best long range kicks for goal. That is important to the Magpies as their forward set up does not revolve around one big target.

They have de Goey, Stephenson, a fit again Elliott plus the midfielders running through. Actually technically they do have one big target in Mason Cox and his 211cm frame but you can’t expect those Preliminary Final heroics every week.

Geelong is a fascinating case study. Much like their contemporary perennials in Hawthorn and Sydney, they have been always in the finals it seems – never falling far from the perch, if at all.

Once again, they have topped up with experienced talent in an attempt to get one more flag.

Around the focused determination of Joel Sellwood and Patrick Dangerfield and the skill of Gary Ablett, no matter his age, they have brought in role players up forward to give Tom Hawkins the help he needs.

Gary Rohan from Sydney and Luke Dahlhaus from the Dogs will be roaming around the front 50, tackling and pressuring which is not a trait Geelong have long adhered to.

Then Esava Ratugolea gets his chance to shine again after that horrible injury which curtailed a promising 2018. He will also allow Hawkins far fewer double teams and share ruck duties.

You would not be surprised at any result here. Often Round 1 is capable of that because it is the one round every season that opposition coaches have had total focus and planning around – all rounds after that are imposed upon by the preceding events.

Geelong has won the last couple over Collingwood in low scoring matches. Will the new rules make it harder for that to occur or will coaches quickly find methods to dull those points run-ons?

Given it is likely a tight affair, happy to take the outsider at the odds and tip Geelong to fall over the line.

Match Selection: Geelong by 4 points

Suggested Bet: Geelong @ $2.25