3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2019 AFL Season.
We’ll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won’t always just be who will win.
SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD
Friday 24 May @ SCG
This Friday night clash suddenly got a little more interesting after the Swans put a couple of very decent performances together.
Swans/Pies games are usually thoroughly engrossing for many reasons (just think back to last year with the McCartin goal late on) – leave alone the infamous happenings at the MCG a few years back.
Don’t be totally deluded by the Sydney wins. They were against teams outside the eight.
However ‘there is a pulse’ as the saying goes. It is being driven almost exclusively by the kids. They had 18 of the 22 against North Melbourne playing under 100 games.
They had no Franklin (and Menzel) forward, no Kennedy pre-game and Jones post-halftime, no Smith and Grundy back.
Yet it was the likes of Papley, McCartin, Blakey, Florent, Hewett, Dawson etc that inspired up front and Aliir and Rampe solidifying from the back 50.
They have things that still need addressing. Continually being beaten in contested possessions, which was their DNA, they have to improve that to battle against the better teams.
And they have had some poor quarter fade outs similar to the last 30 minutes on Saturday.
But to be fair when you are a very young team, consistency is probably the last thing that arrives. Longmire seems very well prepared to be a part of the long term and the players don’t seem to disagree with that.
Oh and while the young forwards will be the future, No 23 won’t hurt helping them along. If he returns, that combination will be a fascinating watch.
Collingwood are the team of the now. They sit second and deservedly so. Solid from the back third, very good up front without a ‘big man’ and a voracious and skilful midfield that bats very deep.
Steele Sidebottom does not get the credit he deserves. While Treloar and Pendlebury and Beams along with Grundy get plenty of headlines, this bloke gets plenty of ball but at the same time is as skilled as any player in the comp on both sides of his body.
St Kilda went with them for three quarters but couldn’t sustain. You could barely have sneezed and missed the six goals to one route late on.
They ran in waves and it could have been more with added accuracy.
It sets them up well to beat an inferior team if they put it all together. The only chance Sydney has to win is start well and scare them early. Better teams that often lead at quarter time just keep that margin the whole match.
The only thing Collingwood hasn’t done much this year is put teams away (besides that last quarter on Sat). Yet their percentage is very good indicating they still win well enough.
Most SCG matches are tighter because of ground size and surface issues. It gets greasy and slippery. Wear your long stops lads.
The logic just says Collingwood wins (Franklin in or out will affect the price) but it could be tougher than the current market. And their injury list affects that further.
Sydney sends George Hewett to the most dangerous mid to tag and he’s done brilliant jobs all season. The trouble is against the Pies you need three of him. The Swans will miss Zac Jones with his hammy and they don’t have the pace to replace that.
Whoever of Treloar or Sidebottom does not get tagged will get a stack of it. Maybe back them both to get 35+ possessions.
Match Selection: Collingwood by 15 points
Suggested Bet: Treloar/Sidebottom 35+ possessions @ $2.20/$4.50
