3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2019 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
GEELONG v HAWTHORN
Sunday 21 July @ MCG
The great rivalry from the recent decade resumes its battle as Geelong play at 'home' at the MCG.
So many games were one kick results, after the siren scores and even Grand Final triumphs. Geelong's great Premiership run starting in 2007 was interspersed with Hawthorn's coming of age in 2008.
The Kennett curse may not exist now but he's back at Hawthorn and Geelong fans would be the ones to love to start the jinx all over.
Geelong's form hasn't seen them registering highly on their good performance index of late. Some would suggest the July factor, others the usual excuse of load training before the finals.
But reality is they've been win loss win loss win since June. They've all but sewn up the Minor Premiership but of course home ground in the finals is reliant on who they play.
If it's Brisbane, GWS or even West Coast in a Qualifying Final you'd say GMHBA is the venue but Collingwood or Richmond could be the beneficiaries of a crowd numbers decision to head to the MCG.
With Dangerfield, Sellwood and Ablett, the opposition have so many question marks with regard who to tag and who to follow when they rest forward.
The person who is often forgotten is Mitch Duncan and he's regularly getting big numbers. His 26 disposals on average are lost in the big name teammates focus.
He may not have the highlights reel that others have but he keeps getting the job done.
Not that it's realistic but if Hawthorn is any chance for finals they have to win this match. They've put two together but their percentage is only parity.
The game against Freo in Launceston was a good representation of parts of their season.
A slow and steady start, a quick burst, dropping away to almost fall behind then surging away late. They played the same against Collingwood but against better opposition, the result was much closer.
They desperately need Mitchell Lewis to develop as a key forward as it shuffles Breust and Gunston down the food chain a bit. He just needs game time.
Can't see Geelong's stingy defence allowing that to happen much this weekend. Tight manning up and arm across will be the mantra.
Unless Clarko can pull another rabbit from the hat this week, this one looks a simpler affair.
Not enough midfielders to cover the options the Cats ask of you, Hawthorn won't want to get behind early. It might be a slaughter.
Match Selection: Geelong by 33 points
Suggested Bets: Mitch Duncan +30 possessions @ $2.25
