3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2019 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

COLLINGWOOD V GWS

Saturday 21 September @ MCG

Two years ago we saw near 100,000 attend the Prelim at the MCG and 98% of them were Tigers fans. GWS had no love and it showed across many levels.

Well in 2019, GWS are a more experienced and better equipped side to handle all that that brings and they take on the Pies for the right to play a week later in the Grand Final.

The week has revolved around the Toby Greene scenario. No question he was a fool for even getting himself into that position after the week prior. Many great players of the past have been tough but still not needed to resort to such tactics.

However how was there sufficient evidence even to have him up? Close is not good enough you could say. He needs a kick up the bum because his actual footballing talent and ability are in such a remarkable place at present.

At the time of writing he was suspended but there is every hope he gets off. His out could determine his team's fate.

He easily sits in the top bracket of forwards in the game that can influence an outcome and win it off his own boot.

You don't always need to be 6 foot 6 or above to command the stage. He does it with ball in hand. His strut engenders outrage from opposition supporters and love from others.

It is not only the goals Greene adds but the way he brings others into the fray.

Collingwood has a solid defence but it's hardly going to put the fear into the opposition. It's their all-star midfield that not only attacks but gets back to help out too.

Adams, Sidebottom, Pendlebury and Treloar will get hold of it constantly. The damage needs to be quelled.

The loss of de Goey is then a crucial aspect. While Elliott and Stephenson along with Hoskin-Elliott and Mihocek are factors, they aren't the X-factors Jordan is.

His hamstring is a constant cause of anguish for Pies bans - his, and Darcy Moore's too.

The question is can they kick a score? GWS has a tall defence which might be able to be attacked but they are going well.

Nick Haynes and Phil Davis just keep marking the long bombs. It is not Collingwood's way. But will they be pressured into it?

Lachie Whitfield was injured last week and only had 13 touches. Now out with his own battle after being hospitalised with appendicitis, GWS need another trooper.

He is one of the best kicks and decision makers in the whole competition. His loss would be profound except he didn't do much last week. That comes on top of Stephen Coniglio. They have some hurdles.

It shapes as a battle of the midfields with a tall forward lines one end and a short one at the other. Could the weather impact that?

If it isn't a wet twilight, I reckon GWS has a big chance here. Their height could impact.

Collingwood can struggle to kick big scores anyway. Rarely do they trouble 100. They'd prefer 70 plays 60.

If the Giants can get the scoreboard ticking with Cameron, Finlayson and Himmelberg causing problems, it means the Collingwood midfield will be forced to go back and help. That takes them from their dangerous positions.

Who Matt de Boer goes to will be a fascination as well? He could go to any of those big four mids. If he wins a critical contest, it will be a pointer.

Tipping an upset here (only if Greene plays). GWS finally got an away finals win last week and so are playing with free money now. Certainly the start looks appealing.

Their skills and attack on the ball will sit themselves right in the face of Collingwood. That probably won't faze the black and whites but an early onslaught might.

Match Selection: GWS by 3 points

Suggested Bets: GWS @ $3.50 (+21.5 points @ $1.90)