3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2020 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

CARLTON V ST KILDA

Thursday 2 July @ Marvel Stadium

The rescheduled match due to virus dramas has in fact tossed up a much touted game to the bright lights of Thursday Night.

There has been oft mentioned annoyance amongst most in the football fraternity as to the amount of feature TV time (especially for Carlton) some teams receive.

Their run a few years back when they got six Friday night games despite being at the tail propping up the ladder was seen as a betrayal. That betrayal is of those teams deserving of more exposure instead of substantiating big Melbourne teams under the guise collective revenues.

Well after two excellent, and excitingly close wins, it is Carlton that actually deserve to be going down more of media street now. St Kilda was basically there before the season began after their recruitment.

Assuming all goes to plan (something that is a tad risky in 2020) we find a really interesting match up to start the next block of games.

Carlton fell a point short against Melbourne and would have won in another two minutes so fast were they coming, won by two at Geelong and then scrambled home again by one over Essendon. Any bluebagger with a dicky ticker will be needing double doses of Ramipril.

The best news about the win against the Bombers was that it wasn't an all or nothing focus on Patrick Cripps shoulders. If he only had 20 disposals in previous years, the margin would have been ten goals.

But others stepped up – both old and new. And while it wasn't the most riveting four quarters, the fact they held on at the finish line was a credit to them.

You also have a 'new' recruit in the backline. Not only is Jacob Weitering barely being beaten, Sam Docherty's recovery from two knee recos provides them solidity. His strong mind and reliability provides more confidence to the rest.

However they will need to be rocking and rolling even quicker now when they stand beside the free flowing Saints who love Marvel Stadium.

St Kilda has been win loss win loss but you can see the signs of improvement in 2020 with the addition of the five recruits in free agency/trade.

You can see Brett Ratten wants to free up his speedsters like Bradley Hill and Butler but also the targets forward such as King and Membrey get better and quicker access to the stream of momentum.

Zak Jones also would provide that but he is out with some more hamstring tightness.

Richmond was no hope of controlling that for the entire match. It was seven goals to four in the second half but reality was the Saints were good value for that lead and win.

Percentage is usually a very good marker of the ability of teams. Both have two wins but St Kilda is 15% superior. That says they are more likely to score when needed most.

Given that, happy to think St Kilda wins this in a fast scoring/high scoring match under the roof.

Match Selection: St Kilda by 6 points

Suggested Bets: Total points Over 128.5 @ $1.90