3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2020 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

COLLINGWOOD V ESSENDON

Friday 3 July @ MCG

The traditional Anzac Day clash in April is now taking place in July due to the obvious circumstances but like many of those games, it brings in so many challenges.

While Collingwood sit fifth, they are naturally still one of the Flag favourites but they hit a hurdle on three fronts last week.

Beaten in a tough, uncompromising and physical battle in Sydney by GWS, they also lost Jeremy Howe for however long it takes him to recover from the bung knee. It could be the whole season but the way things are travelling, we don't know exactly when that might be.

Every time GWS got to a position of advantage, the Pies fought back and players who had contributed little earlier in the game made a comeback of sorts.

Brodie Grundy dominated the hit outs but much like the Prelim Final, they were sharked and the Giants did enough to get it to the danger of Toby Greene.

He should have his own away again this week in the ruck but it will be up to the midfielders like Adams, Pendlebury and returning Adam Treloar back to use it far more attractively and consistently.

They still played well enough but the loss of Howe will be a fascinating watch as he has become the general. He's co-ordinated the backline around which Roughead, Crisp, Maynard etc can either do the defensive stuff or run off half back.

That isn't so easily restructured within one week and in these days of close games, it could make a big difference.

Then you have Steele Sidebottom. A month was maybe the right penalty but he could have had one more just for stupidity.

No doubt the Bombers would have been annoyed to lose last Saturday night. Not just because it was Carlton but the manner of it having led well into the last and kicking more goals in the match.

It was another of those hardly inspiring contests but they probably should have nailed them down. Unable to clamp down on Casboult and McGovern in the air at times, they actually did a fair job on Cripps but it was still not enough.

Someone will need to clamp down on the Collingwood mids or it will be a tough night. However you can sense there will be a job assigned to someone. Maybe Devon Smith or McGrath could do a tagging role.

Zach Merrett's effort in allowing himself to be in the position to be suspended was brainless. Why do some players need to be tough? They already are playing this ruthless sport. His loss will be felt. But that is offset by Steele Sidebottom's indiscretion.

Essendon have to maintain the pressure for the entire four quarters. If they do they are a chance to win.

Perhaps having that extra week off after the postponement of the Melbourne match did them no favours. They'd come off a good win over Sydney and had some momentum.

Collingwood are a better team. But we do need to see what the restructure looks like. Every backline player steps up one link in the chain now.

Gil talks about predictability, flexibility and routine being something that we can't command this season.

Well that unpredictability is self-evident and we'll go for another upset as Essendon can win this even though they've lose the last few in tight matches.

Match Selection: Essendon by 7 points

Suggested Bets: Essendon @ $3.20