3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2020 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
GWS V RICHMOND
Friday 24 July @ Giants Stadium
Grand Final re-matches are not usually fought out between teams coming 4th against 13th but 2020 is seeing plenty of snakes and ladders.
While the Tigers have strung three together, they have been against teams in the bottom third of the ladder. That is some factor but the timing of any resurgence has coincided with a timely draw.
Their hosts have not grasped the new season with any verve. Spluttering and bumping, the Ferrari is not out of the garage with any power.
Sometimes they look good but it hasn't been sustained in a four quarter effort against a top team bar Collingwood for a while.
The 2019 run to the Grand Final managed to be built even without some of their best names. So it was more about system than personnel. There are more injuries this year but they haven't had the same resolve.
Their backline is always solid but it hardly fast and so run from half back is not a driver so far. Whitfield is so skilful but not electric while Haynes, Davis and Shaw aren't going to win the Olympic 100m final.
When you tack on the big men up front (Himmelberg/Cameron/Finlayson), holding the ball in that forward 50 is a tough gig. Boy do they need Toby Greene at their feet and he is back this week.
What they also desperately require is Coniglio and Kelly to get back to their dashing best. So far in 2020 they haven't been able to kick start it. They are very capable though. A switch in ruckman might also help.
If they wanted to give themselves a test of whether they were capable, nothing better than the Premiers – coming off those three wins.
They too have some injuries (and long termers as well) but they've been lucky to run into weak outfits.
How much of the fact North Melbourne could only kick two goals for the game was of Richmond's doing is debatable. But at least they had 11 of their own.
Still not functioning at full power, and maybe that will only come with Cotchin, Prestia etc back, you can see the wheels motioning better.
Seeing the younger names like Eggmolesse-Smith, Chol, Bolton etc taking the responsibility and willing the Tigers on can only be good.
They get them through to the finals and then it's on the big boys shoulders again. In many ways 2019 was along those lines when the injury curse struck early.
They have Grimes and Vlastuin ever reliable and most elite teams who maintain a standard over many years have that solidity.
But this is it. If GWS doesn't get a scalp it might be curtains. They'd fall to 3 & 5 with only 9 games left. Winning a minimum of 6 may be required after that.
So we'll tip them to fall home albeit they are ridiculously short as the favourites. Coniglio will be out to prove a point so we'll take him for plenty of possessions.
Match Selection: GWS by 4 points
Suggested Bets: Stephen Coniglio 25+ possessions @ $2.25
