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Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2020 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

PORT ADELAIDE V GEELONG

Thursday 1 October @ Adelaide Oval

Back in late March we never thought we'd get to this stage when the pandemic hit but we are glad we are here and can't wait.

We kick off with the replay of the 2007 Grand Final as the Power host the Cats on Thursday and they enter in a little different form.

The Power stayed on top of the table for the entirety of 2020 and that historically has been a Flag winning formula.

2020 Meeting: Round 12 @ Metricon Stadium

Geelong 91 defeated Port Adelaide 31

Port had recently been racking up the wins against some of the lower sides until they played Collingwood in the last game of the regular season.

It was a beautiful tune up as the Pies were desperate for a win to avoid a trip to Perth and Port Adelaide wanted to be Minor Premiers in a storied year for the club.

The game was a tremendous battle, back and forth but the more clinical nature of their forwards got Ken Hinkley's lads home.

The defence held pretty well and they aren't much heralded – a little undersized but get the job done but it was those forward of there that enjoyed the challenge.

By contrast, Geelong had the heart pills out for their supporters. Sydney is always a combative team but few gave them a big hope of knocking off the Cats in a match of such importance as Top 4 was the result.

Had it not been for a brilliant Mark Blicavs smother of James Rowbottom's snap, they might have been in an Elimination Final.

The game turned effectively on one man's intervention. Paddy Dangerfield left the midfield to wander forward and starting looking like Jason Dunstall on a lead.

He had the Chief's dukes out and not only took the marks, more importantly kicked like him too. That hasn't always been Danger's forte.

So let's look forward now to the game and what could lead to Port Adelaide's ascent to the crown.

For Port to WIN: They need a complete four quarter effort. Sometimes they get a bit happy with themselves – drowning in honey.

Their big bodied midfielders are plentiful which is critical come finals time when the hits are bigger and that contact causes turnover. Even more so in 2020 as the shorter quarters mean it is intense for longer.

Boak, Wines, Ebert, Rockliff, Powell-Pepper etc show they bat deep. Other teams can sit and tag the opposition best mid. It is tough to do that with Port.

But even more so what will happen to Charlie Dixon. He has been their colossus this year but needs help. It is critical some other bigs stand up. Someone like Todd Marshall has to at worst offer a contest or Geelong will just double/triple team Dixon.

That is also where Robbie Gray has to get them squirming and an early lead could make Geelong panic.

For Geelong to WIN: They need to re-find their forward threats. They've been very much Tom Hawkins one out for a while. Even if Gary Rohan isn't Dermot Brereton, he needs to contest in the air but also use his speed, chasing hard because their elite mids are not fast.

Ablett will be better for the one game back, so too will Sellwood. Miers and Dahlhaus offer some skill but hardly make oppositions quiver.

Now if their defence did get Dixon behind early and craving the ball up the field, the threat is lessened. They are capable of that.

Much the same they can't afford Hawkins to be double teamed.

The psychology of this match is always a fascination. A Port Adelaide win sets them up for a Prelim at home, two weeks at home in their own beds and a release of the pressure that such a good season deserves.

Geelong has had a shocking finals record for a decade. Nearly every year they've been in them and every time they've fallen at some final hurdles.

The X-Factor Switch to turn the game: The obvious is to say Dangerfield could be needed to try what he did against Sydney.

But at the other end Geelong love to have the midfielders roll back and clog up the defence. Why not make them accountable and tag them there – Rockliff a classic example of one who could do it.

Fancy Port has plenty of weapons but they can't take anything for granted. A good sized home crowd can only help with the 'noise of affirmation'.

It can be Port's small forwards and mids that kick a big enough score. If they do they win. Final games are generally tight and low scoring so take the Unders.

Match Selection: Port Adelaide by 12 points

Suggested Bets: Total Points Under 115.5 @ $1.90