3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2020 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

BRISBANE V RICHMOND

Friday 2 October @ the Gabba

Maybe the most fascinating of the four finals has been a one sided affair for near on a decade.

Richmond has a 15 game win streak going over the Brisbane Lions. No doubt many of those were when the Lions were rubbish but even the last few years and in finals, it was one-way traffic.

How do Brisbane overcome the bogey of not just the defeats but the style of them? They have been so comprehensive it isn't funny. Unlike say the Kennett curse with Geelong over Hawthorn, those matches were often nailbiters – these have been blowouts.

2020 Meeting: Round 10 @ Metricon Stadium

Richmond 82 defeated Brisbane 41

The Lions were able to see off Carlton in the last round but once again their stigma all year was shown up. They kicked 11.12 and so many times we have seen them have nearly as many behinds as goals – several times more.

Their confidence in front of goal has been shocking really for one of the elite teams. Missing easy set shots only allowed defenders to take more risks with holding because they realise it isn't an automatic 6 points.

They will also sweat on the availability and quality of Harris Andrews. Not only would have been the necessary match up for Tom Lynch but he is the organiser too. Most teams struggle when their defensive leader is not there.

Without a readymade replacement, they would be so out of kilter down back. He likely now just takes Riewoldt with Lynch not playing. Or would they risk him on Martin when he's down there?

Richmond just went around for practice against Adelaide. It was a working gallop in truth. They might well have not even bothered. They were waiting for the Finals.

They love the Gabba and love playing Brisbane. It is a match made in heaven for them into the post season with the week off an interesting conundrum. Having played so many times on short breaks, they now run the risk of several weeks off.

And they get some big name troops back. Prestia, Edwards, Bolton etc are cream on the cake should they all play.

For Brisbane to WIN: It is as much a case of forgetting as it is remembering. They need to start kicking straight again as we mentioned.

But they also can't focus on that run of losses to the Tigers NOR their straight sets departure in 2019. It shapes as a similar scenario so the win here is crucial.

Neale will face plenty of attention. Not that Richmond tag but they will see him as the gatherer that Brisbane rely on. Cameron and Hipwood can't function properly without that midfield getting the ball and moving it fast. Strangely the way to beat the Tigers is to deny them it.

For Richmond to WIN: They will bring such history and momentum. In some ways they are better placed than their two flags.

Albeit they have not had a good year off the field, on it only injury has impacted. Most are in pretty decent form. Maybe we will see a repeat of the Hawthorn wins. They beat Fremantle/Sydney/West Coast not too long back. Richmond could well be facing an Adelaide/GWS/?? (other interstate side) for their reckoning.

Could a Victorian side be their kryptonite? That is not an issue here. Whatever - they are the ones to beat. Dustin Martin has been THE finals player of recent times. When he was down/injured in 2018 they didn't make it to the GF. Either side of that they did and he won the medal.

The X-Factor Switch to turn the game: Clearly Brisbane is the one that has to change things up given the huge sequence of wins going the other way Winx-style. I'd clear the forward-line out. Leave Hipwood one on one and hope the mids kick plenty from 45+m out.

Richmond love to make the backline seem small and congregate Vlastuin/Grimes with their intercepting. Much tougher accountability wise when your opponent is 50m away.

Can't see anything but a Richmond win again even without Lynch but it will be tighter than first thought. Even if not convincing, reckon it will take an in-game matter such as a big injury to alter that course.

Match Selection: Richmond by 16 points

Suggested Bets: Richmond -2.5 points @ $1.90