3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
COLLINGWOOD V BRISBANE
Thursday 1 April @ Marvel Stadium
So here comes the madness again – the virus reared its ugly head once more and the tentacles have impacted on sport as well as normal life.
The AFL has had to move fast and get the Queensland teams out – but will they be the last? Having been the hosts in 2020 they now play the role of the guests at the footy party 2021 style.
Luckily it was easy to switch this game and so Collingwood will play at 'home' this week and at the end of the year play away.
It could be crucial long term too as Brisbane is desperate for a win and not wanting to drop off the challengers list so quickly. Losing contact early, like in a marathon, means that you have to exert so much energy to get it back, by the time the finals are around, you having nothing left.
Collingwood were much better second up from a spell. Having been beaten by what most would consider a good team in the Dogs, they fought off their rivals Carlton with a much more attacking game plan.
Shaper movement, more skill and expanding the field by going forward helped there. That has not been the Magpie way over recent seasons.
It helps when you have someone to kick to and De Goey showed that is a critical nature of the new game. A spread field means a true full forward can play as such. Surely he has to be more dangerous than running around the centre.
Sidebottom back allows him to do just that. Now they will miss Jamie Elliott, out with the broken bone in his leg. You can't afford to be losing talent – especially when that is what you don't have a lot of in that position on the field.
Will they be able to stretch the ground as much against Brisbane? That team's preparation has been thrown into some disarray with the Covid outbreak at home.
Now nomads in Victoria for some unspecified length of time, can they Hub as well as others were forced to do in their patch last year?
Given how unplanned this was, we probably won't know the answer for a few weeks – at least until after this game's siren sounds.
Let's be frank – they were stiff last Friday. The incorrect disposal to end the game was not great. Then again there were others through the match too but it becomes stark when it counts the most.
After getting behind early, they did fight back even with Lachie Neale so well constrained. You rarely see him held to 16 disposals. The tagger may well be back.
That fascination becomes a question for both teams – to tag or not to tag? Shakespeare probably didn't have something along those lines in his prose. But do Coll tag Neale and would Bris tag Pendlebury? Whoever did it best can win.
Chris Fagan's little pre-emptive strike about Neale's attention could pay immediate dividends.
Up forward Hipwood got four but they need both Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher – their biggest names, to be causing mayhem not being bit part players. Rayner's loss could well be being felt already.
They also continue to be plagued with inaccuracy. 11.14 shows just what one straighter kick meant in a one point game. Last year they got away with it at home. Something suggests they won't this year.
But they are still a good enough team Brisbane to win these sorts of games. Had this been Round 1 not Round 3, after two losses, they'd be $1.60.
Happy to give them one more chance to show they are still strong finals contenders as Collingwood do play better at the MCG.
Match Selection: Brisbane by 5 points
Suggested Bets: Brisbane 1-39 @ $2.70
