3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

GEELONG V HAWTHORN

Monday 5 April @ MCG

There are rivalries built of tradition and scorn and then there are rivalries based upon the shear mad terror of the closeness of contests.

Geelong and Hawthorn is so much more the latter given the last 15 years. And yet the supporters of each of these protagonists, that I happen to know anyway, dislike the opposing side with a vehement passion.

I reckon if you asked both groups of fans who they'd love to beat most in any season and they'd offer the other quicker than Cyril over 15m.

Things have changed in recent years given Hawthorn hasn't been at the pointy end all the time and that could well fuel some of the angst.

One can still recall all those countless single figure results, match ending kicks and great comebacks. Even neutrals enjoyed them a great deal.

Well it's back on again and you couldn't say it won't be close once more. Geelong aren't exactly running at full RAT power to begin the year while Hawthorn has begun a rebuild adding more youth this time around compared to their constant topping up of used components.

Everyone (bar the most biased of Cats) concedes they shouldn't have grabbed the four points at Kardinia Park. The call in the last bit of the game was wrong. A win all the way down there, where few teams salute bar the home lot, would have been worth double to Brisbane.

But look in the chip wrapping – Geelong won by a point. There will be no changing of the result like the famous Freo/StK game for this one.

The stop start nature to 2021 so far for the Cats has led many to think they haven't adjusted to the new rules. Their older, slower bodies, best suited to contested ball and congestion, may not love the speed out wide.

Tack onto that the notion that their home ground also is a long oval rather than a fat one, means the spread of the ground under the man on the mark change could be less obvious to them.

They have many top players but things can move fast in this game and without Dangerfield for another fortnight, will the likes of Sellwood, Duncan and the newer lot impact as much? Having also focused offseason on acquiring Jeremy Cameron and then losing him before Rd 1, are they back to Plan A?

Hawthorn is a team in transition so many consecutive wins are unlikely. They will have good and bad days. Good like running over the top off Essendon and then losing to better line ups like Richmond.

They just need to keep unearthing more talent. One can't rely on Burgoyne in his dotage and Mitchell through the guts forever.

Kicking a winning score this season seems even more imperative than holding a team defensively and that could be the Hawks bane. Are there 16+ goals in that forward line? There hasn't really been for a while with some recruits not working out.

This game isn't cut and dried given Geelong's form. The Adelaide loss was stark and they really should be 0-2. But can the Glenferrie men conjure enough? You wouldn't put it past Clarkson to imagine a method in a match that means a lot to his supporters.

Geelong should prevail but without any confidence here. The current betting is too far apart.

Match Selection: Geelong by 13 points

Suggested Bets: Hawthorn +22.5 @ $1.90