3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
CARLTON V PORT ADELAIDE
Saturday 17 April @ MCG
This is a match that could become critical come August/September. One of these teams could look back here and think gee I wish we'd won that one.
Both won last week but against far differing foes. Their contests were a bit similar albeit the opposition not so.
Carlton had an up and down struggle on the Gold Coast but did enough kicking 9.16. Port had an up and down struggle in Adelaide but fell in by 2 points. The Tigers are a better form line definitively after Thursday night.
Rarely do you think the highlight and best quality of a team is their defence but in Carlton's case, their defenders are almost their most reliable players.
Liam Jones along with Docherty, Weitering and others solidify a unit that at least makes them tougher to score against and therefore holds them in more matches.
A sieve-like backline means oppositions can play more risky in their own half with the likelihood that opportunities will present going forward. It might not make their matches pretty but supporter bases will accept close wins and losses if competitive.
Around the ball Cripps and Walsh are a top double act but clinical supply heading up the field is needed when the forward structure is a bit, well, without structure.
They miss Jack Martin and Zac Fisher in those areas as crumbing to McKay and Casboult is a necessity.
Being at the MCG, the ball can swirl as opposed to indoors at Marvel where it is a more pristine. Crumbing the talls plays a bigger role outdoors then.
The one thing we know about Port Adelaide is their little men have been great historically. But their troubles also now mount losing two of their finest young talents. Zak Butters and Xavier Durrsma will have extended periods off the track.
Ankles and knees are never pretty but worse for all concerned when they are the contorted versions, adding incredible stress to those joints. This is the first time in a couple of years Port have been stretched thinner.
So the big take is have they the back up to deal with that given few have had bigger league opportunity. That is not to say they won't handle it but it's not something Ken Hinkley has had to deal much with.
They were great as a team no question at home. The Tigers had a real crack and it was less than one kick in the end.
You'd suggest both have played teams of relative standings in aggregate so far. And yet Port's % is over three goals better. That said now they come to the MCG. If it was the other way there'd be no betting.
Not so sure this time. If it was one of those windy, haphazard nights in Melbourne, Carlton can bring a less superior game and challenge.
Might take the points here and would even consider an upset possible. Recall last year, after so many missed, it came down to Robbie Gray, who only got them home with a superb kick on a tight angle after the hooter in Brisbane.
Match Selection: Carlton by 2 points
Suggested Bets: Carlton +7.5 points @ $1.90
