3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
MELBOURNE V RICHMOND
Saturday 24 April @ MCG
The pre-Anzac Day festival falls on a Saturday this year and what a game this should be – perhaps heresy to suggest but it's so much better (and bigger in 2021) than the big one the following day.
Let's be totally honest – who saw Melbourne unbeaten after five games? I know a few Demons fans who were petrified of simply the prospect of losing to Freo in Round 1 at the MCG.
That looks a lifetime ago but it was just a month back. Remember this is basically the same team that played in 2020. Some additions through trading and drafting are really on the periphery right now through injury. It's being driven mostly by those who were there and lived through the poor Hub experience.
Petracca, Oliver, McDonald and even Gawn are impacting more but it's the next level down. The likes of Salem, Jackson, Langdon, Spargo etc that have moved the pressure gauge to high right around the ground.
Missing May for a while was possible with his head injury but he may return quicker than expected – too soon? Lever was levering the backline but having his mate back helps.
But as opposed to some Melbourne teams soon gone, they aren't panicking when behind. Even Hawthorn, who aren't a strong team admittedly, were right with them to three-quarter time. Then the afterburners went on. Eight goals in the last such a positive emotionally for them going into Anzac Eve.
While that was fodder, this is power. Richmond was like the bloke walking into a new gym and flexing for all to see just to remind the fellow attendees that he is king of the jungle.
They gave an undeniably underdone and injury hit St Kilda a lesson from midway through the second. Once class told – it told in a very big way.
Many of the usual suspects got back into the flow. Not much seen against Sydney and then in parts in Adelaide, they roared back at Marvel.
Dusty said I'm the big man in town, his fellow travellers bought tickets for the ride and then it helped that the big boppers in Lynch and Riewoldt had eight between them. If that becomes the norm, having S May back is critical.
The one thing Melbourne has at its disposal in this match is that they run deep in the middle and if anything that could be where the Tigers are a little less secure with Prestia out. Martin could be needed to do more heavy lifting in the middle which takes away some of his forward effectiveness.
They've had a good recent run against the Demons but in turn that is hardly surprising given the fortunes over the last few years of both mobs.
Should Petracca, Brayshaw, Viney and Oliver get a good grip early and control the midfield, Melbourne is a show. You are probably likely to best think Richmond found the confidence tram a good one though.
Oliver has been the one in recent clashes to get plenty of it but it hasn't hurt the Tigers. Do they try to quell him and risk Petracca or use the same principle of saying one can hurt us, one will hurt us so they put more time into No 5. Thinking it's more the latter.
Or it just might all come down to Nathan Jones with the sealer to make those long-suffering Demons tear up. One unnamed I know could do just that.
So, maybe Richmond…maybe. This is a close one surely. But it's no forgone conclusion. Some rain on the day could make it a lower scoring affair.
Match Selection: Richmond by 11 points
Suggested Bets: Total Points Under 157.5 @ $1.95
