3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
RICHMOND V WESTERN BULLDOGS
Friday 30 April @ MCG
Defending champs against equal flag favourites is a tantalising way to begin Round 7 with so many side angles thrown in for good measure.
You've got a huge name who goes out, who may play and everything that that involved for both outfits?
Strangely for Richmond, they don't bring in quality form lines. The outlier of that St Kilda thrashing was in between the close loss to Port and the hidings from Sydney and Melbourne at the MCG. It's probably their worst month long patch since mid-2017.
They meet the hot team on a hot tear and the hot take is they are unbeatable at present. But is that truly the case? So far the Dogs have played teams that are currently 17th, 10th, 18th, 8th, 11th and 14th. This is their first true test even if the Tiges are just going.
Richmond needs a spark from somewhere. They were in front on ANZAC Day Eve at Quarter Time and yet kicked three goals in the last three stanzas.
That is firstly not good enough and secondly un-Richmond like. Goal scoring has never really been their issue. Their waves of momentum have seen them regularly kick at least 14 goals and then the backs hold the opposition.
In 2021 the backline has held reasonably solidly but it's up front where again (bar for the Saints match) they haven't hit the scoreboard.
And now they must deal with an even greater blow as Dustin Martin succumbed to a concussive issue last week. From his physical view, that may come at a good time if there is one under those circumstances as he hasn't looked at full capacity this year. A recharge of the batteries and a recalibration of the body a positive.
Tack on Kane Lambert to Dion Prestia and maybe Dylan Grimes as well and you've got some series firepower filling MCG seating. For the first time in a long while their depth will be examined.
The impact of those could be widely felt as they run headlong into the freight train of the Bulldogs. 6-0 with a % of 175 and a midfield continuing to gain plenty of it means no reprieve is in sight.
GWS were undermanned but right in that game last Friday in Canberra into the last quarter. Then a sharp and swift onslaught was too much for the Giants to withstand.
Led by the leather poisoned Macrae on the outside and the in close efforts of Treloar, it has given some freedom to Liberatore, Hunter, Smith and Bontempelli to not have to be endlessly in the trenches unless needed.
That doesn't mean they are unbeatable in the slightest but they have a mix at present that teams are finding hard to repress. It becomes harder when not at full strength.
A thing to consider is that this is their first trip back to the MCG since Round 1. Ironically the fortress Richmond had made their home hasn't quite been that way in 2021.
While the Bulldogs are no good things, they do deserve at least to be a strong fav if that makes the slightest of sense. Their form coupled with the Tigers lack of it lends itself to that spread in the market.
A first test in a long while without Martin means how do they react – especially should they fall behind early. He is the man they just flick the switch to. Their 'Break Glass in Case of Emergency' as we saw late in Q2 of the Grand Final.
If you're the Bulldogs, the best thing you could do for yourselves is to start well, lead early and never give the Tigers a sniff whatsoever. Beveridge should drum that in from the off.
Having never been a tagging team wonder how Hardwick plays this? With so many decisions to make on that anyway, he may not even bother.
The Dogs are easily stayed with given all that is offered here. Watch for a Bontempelli masterclass here. The in-and-under types can provide him with the ability to impress on their biggest stage so far in 2021.
Match Selection: Western Bulldogs by 19 points
Suggested Bets: Marcus Bontempelli 25+ possessions/2 Goals @ $4.80
