3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

RICHMOND V GEELONG

Friday 7 May @ MCG

The football weekend begins where it ended last season – it's the Grand Final replay but in a far different place and under far different circumstances.

There will be plenty of screaming fans in attendance but they will mostly be home fans this time around and they'll be happy to return serve in the most eloquent way possible.

These two have very recent history in not just home and away footy that is hard if you are a Geelong supporter.

Grand Final, Preliminary Final and Qualifying Final losses are hard to take. Some are made even harder when you have to play them at the foes home ground (every non-MCG team have their own pangs on that score).

When you look at the team's form, the scope of its time frame is critical. One game in isolation can look superb or deplorable. So how do you absorb the Tigers situation?

The Sydney and Melbourne losses were poor – the comeback and dismantling of the uppity Bulldogs a delight to fans and sections of the media. So what is the true form?

The likelihood is it is somewhere in between, albeit you have to give them more leeway given recent history. Most would side with the most recent example as the best around.

When the Dogs were four goals clear and running amok, alarm bells surely rang. Was this the truest indication that, even without Martin to right the ship, that they were on the decline?

Sixty minutes later and they were flag favs once more! From four down they were four up on the winning post. You'd love your horses to be as regimented and powerful in their finish.

While the backline is often given its dues often with the big men like Grimes, Balta, Vlastuin etc, it was the drive off half back with Houli, Baker and Broad plus the toughness of Nankervis that was spirited.

Tom Lynch literally could have kicked a 'Buddy 13' had he kicked straight, not handed off and done what most full forwards do. He was clunking most things.

They have to pose a big threat to Geelong if for no other reason than recently they've had that psychological edge.

For all the commentary and countless forests lopped to produce the papers that concentrated solely on the Jeremy Cameron mark on Saturday night, it wallpapered over other matters from the match which still have implications going forward.

Of course it was more than 15m. It should have been a mark but would Cameron have kicked it from the tightest of angles with little/no time left to play on anyway?

Did nobody see some of the other decisions earlier which were critical like a 'hold' given against Lloyd on Close which was a feather or the Hayward mark and call play on then holding the ball in the centre?

One thing also missed is that Geelong actually played well. It was a high quality game but their inability to hold the Swans tide in the second quarter gave them passage back into the match and then it was a roller coaster after that.

Cameron and Rohan worked well but Hawkins was not himself. He missed some crucial attempts and dropped important marks. Is he missing not being 'the man' up front?

No Dangerfield is probably stopping them from being further up the ladder. At times you could see how they need his impact as others are good but need a figurehead.

Then there are the ruck stocks. To get obliterated by Tom Hickey was not something any teams would have thought a scenario worth contemplating in 2021 but it did happen. Nankervis has been in fine form so they'll need a team ruck set up probably.

All that said, Geelong is not out of this match. Form fluctuations from most teams this year are a nightmare for tipsters and punters.

Martin will be back so a big tick. Cotchin is gone so a cross. It's a net positive for the Tigers but not something you want too much of.

If the Cats can hold Lynch and Riewoldt (a big if given they couldn't hold McLean last week), they have enough good players to worry the Tigers.

But if it's a speed test, like the Americans call a track meet, Richmond's ball movement should be too fast. But any sort of keepings off would favour Geelong as the Tiges want ball in contested areas.

Again, just for Richmond, but this is much more a 50:50 game than betting suggests. Should be close so maybe back them both 1-24 for a small profit.

Match Selection: Richmond by 7 points

Suggested Bets: Richmond 1-24 @ $2.90/Geelong 1-24 @ $3.50