3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

MELBOURNE V SYDNEY

Saturday 8 May @ MCG

Saturday night shapes as a cracking game between two teams rising.

Well one has risen to the top so much so that they haven't dropped a catch all year. The other is young but have such a foundation to build on.

Melbourne has been the surprise packets. To many Demons fans, it's not that they have won some of the matches with good style and ability, it's that they haven't dropped the unthinkable ones.

That almost happened last week in Hobart against a very weak but perhaps improving North Melbourne. Almost hard to fathom they were over three goals down midway through Q3. One more straight kick and there would have been some fairly conspicuous social media descriptors flying. Entertaining for the rest of us but not so much the Demons clan.

At least the positive out of it was that it wasn't left to Gawn and Petracca to lift them out of the hole they dug for themselves. They had one of their quieter days but surely both are still right in the reckoning for 'Charlie' come the last Monday of the season?

It was their runners like Salem and Langdon plus Oliver's ball gathering and the development of Luke Jackson as a very tall midfielder and/or as a ruck/forward. Whatever he ends up, he has the talent to play the game at high standards.

The knee injury to Adam Tomlinson will hurt for the now. Someone like Isaac Heeney could well enjoy more freedom up forward with the loss in defence. But Bayley Fritsch getting off helps. He could give the Swans some headaches in return.

All season they have overcome obstacles including getting behind in matches and not panicking. It's not a great trait to continually have to chase but knowing you can get that back is positive too.

Speaking of that style, that is exactly what the Swans had to do to get the four points in Sydney last Saturday. It was a cracking match against Geelong if one can focus away from the last 10 seconds of it.

Having given the Cats a big start, the smart thing Sydney did was not feel the need to pursue it so quickly as that can lead to a big loss. That said, it did only take them into Q3 before they managed to find the front.

They were getting caned in the middle in the opening stanza but once Kennedy, Parker and then Florent along with Warner and Rowbottom getting some control back, they levelled up the inside game and so the outside game took over.

Such a critical thing at the SCG is not to be thrashed out of the centre with the slightly shorter ground. It isn't as bad as it was in the old days but the CHF position can get kicked over there.

What they have in their favour this week is a return to the MCG. The irony here is that for 20 years the perception was they played poorly there but the reality is they just won more in Sydney. That has changed in recent years. And we saw what the Richmond effort did to that narrative.

You can also add in the distinct possibility that both Dane Rampe and Lance Franklin could be back. The solidifier at the back and the match winner up front would be handy.

Tom McCartin has been superb all year at CHB taking the big guns. He outplayed Tom Hawkins last week. But having Rampe back just makes it more of a spread of the load.

The runners will need to be on their toes both defensively and attacking wise. If Melbourne's speed on the outside is at its best, that will make life tough for the Swans. Inside it should at least be a tight contest.

Would Melbourne put Tom McDonald back onto say Franklin? They'd almost prefer May and Lever to drop off but Buddy is irresistible if left to his own roaming.

Sydney seems very big odds in this. At the very least the start is inviting. But Melbourne is a more wholesome team this season so them, but it should be a top game.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 11 points

Suggested Bets: Sydney +22.5 @ $1.90