3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

ST KILDA V GEELONG

Friday 14 May @ Marvel Stadium

It may not be the 2009 Grand Final (especially under a roof) but it's a footy match with plenty of interest this Friday Night.

Hope it's like the famous 'unbeatens' match when they both went in 13-0 and Michael Gardner sealed it late via a massive pack mark.

Both have turned a corner over the last few weeks after being questioned as late as a month back.

After towelling up Hawthorn which most do at present, the Saints just had to get the job done on the Gold Coast and while it was a battle they are a better team than them and it told late.

Geelong had had their game plan and style questioned so far in 2021 (quite rightly I reckon) but two thumping wins surrounding that classic 2 point loss to the Swans would happily shut up those of us with those queries.

For the Saints, the strange thing about their win was that it wasn't really their way. Behind well into the second half, they hit the front, gave it back up to nearly three goals down and then kicked four unanswered in the last quarter.

A few experienced and tough heads stood up when it counted. Jones, Crouch and Steele brought what was needed when it looked like another maddening loss would plunge them into the danger zone of 3 and 5.

Very much a momentum team, kicking straight is such a valuable asset and that has been an issue for them at times. Again on the weekend it was 8.15 and that won't get it done come Prelim Final day.

Speaking of momentum teams, few are more so than the Cats and now comes a stern test for the Saints if they want to keep marching in.

Reckon at Quarter Time there was some writing the obituaries for them. Even though only down three goals it was the rampant nature of Richmond and given how they'd played the week prior, it was hard to see the turnaround coming.

But once they settled and were close enough by the Half, it was 13 goals to 2 after the long break. The first signs of the big forwards coming together was there even though they all played the week before in Sydney and failed to deliver.

Cameron and Rohan got fanfare but Tom Hawkins is much underrated for his selflessness and ability to bring others into the game. Add in his ruck work around the goals (when the Cats ruck stocks are poor in general) and he's the complete forward product.

St Kilda will do well to curtail all of them on the fast Marvel Stadium but as Sydney showed it can be done. And they were undermanned down back too.

And while those rucks stocks are very much in the home team's favour, they lose Zak Jones with a bad quad injury at training and he has been very influential.

Geelong has had the better of this match up for some time. The last three have been shellackings. This is a more rounded St Kilda team though. They have better and more tools at their disposal. And still no Dangerfield so credit to the Cats for those wins without him.

Given the Saints try to play this as a speedy fixture, that will ask some questions. That style rattled Geelong for a quarter two weeks ago but couldn't be sustained. Sydney slowed things down, controlled the play from back half then surged.

This week the Saints have more speed outside and on the fast track might want to use that if they perceive the Cats to be older and slower?

In a season of upsets and quick changes in form, you'd be very tempted to tip St Kilda but that loss of Jones could be critical.

Suggesting it will be tight so can back both teams under 24 for a small profit.

Match Selection: Geelong by 2 points

Suggested Bets: St Kilda 1-24 @ $4.50 & Geelong 1-24 @ $3.00