3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

MELBOURNE V BRISBANE

Friday 4 June @ Giants Stadium

Gee it's been a while since the Demons and the Lions met in something this significant. OK it isn't a final but it is a lovely marker for a big game down the track.

And both hit this at a time of playing high quality and season defining football.

Melbourne deservedly announced themselves as the best team of the year to this date. Not just because they are on top of the ladder but because what they are doing is repeatable, honest, commendable and stands up in this era of football.

They looked straight into the face of their rivals, the Dogs, who were bringing in similar form lines and stared them down. They took them on from the jump and gave them zero sniffs – not bad against Dogs.

There are two real reasons for this. OK the forward line is functioning this year when it spluttered the two after the 2018 run to the Prelim.

But this year is about the strength and selflessness of the midfield and the heroic pillars in defence.

Clayton Oliver is having a mighty year. It's not that he's doing that much more on the scorecard. He has averaged 28 disposals in his career and in 2021 he's at 32. It is the decisiveness and the quality that seems better.

Far more focused passing and handballing than anything of a willy-nilly nature this year, he's on target to kick near his best which is just into double figures but again it's more about the collaborative effort than anything individual.

And speaking of a joint effort, the backline is where they have spent much of their drafting and it's finally working. Hawthorn's model for Premiership success was draft on and forward of the ball, and trade back of centre. This might be the same.

Having Lever and May as mainstays with the smaller ones around them gives both stability but also confidence of those in front. Their on-field chatter was so much on display at the crowdless Marvel last week.

Also consider with the aforementioned going so well, it's freed up Tom McDonald to find his feet (and his hands) again and he's resurgent. The team just can't do without the goals. He may not get to the 53 in 2018 but he will be far more than any other year if he keeps this up.

However, with all that assurance within the team, they will need to display it again no matter the fact it won't be played where it was supposed to be against a rampant rival.

Let's be frank – Brisbane obliterated GWS in a game which looked like firsts against seconds when it wasn't. They do love playing at the Gabba it must be noted. But they were five goals up at Quarter Time and the rest was history.

Zorko got the numbers but he had so many teammates joining in the party. They kicked 19 goals and yet Cameron, Daniher and Hipwood snared just one each. That would seem a very good formula. At times the big boppas are needed but if they aren't in the frame, to have so many others contributing is massive.

A sense of team has permeated their style and clearly it's a mantra which they've bought into from the Fagan era.

The fact this game is being played in Sydney is important enough but given it was going to be played in Alice Springs takes away any huge thought in the home ground aspect.

Had it been at the SCG there were reasons to think Brisbane might not have liked that too much at all. They didn't enjoy it there last year against Geelong and have regularly lost to the Swans.

Giants Stadium has a different atmosphere – let's just use that terminology. But the ground style brings slightly more chances for Brisbane than it might have.

Still Melbourne is defending so well (but need to again). If they tackle well across the board, the Lions might get trapped wanting to feed those forwards before getting midfield control. From there they can eventually be forced to chase the game a long way out which is tough to a defensively minded team.

The market has this as close and fair enough. But that doesn't mean one team might make a big stand. Fancy that is Melbourne here. Watch for some quality from the centre and not much being given away.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 21 points

Suggested Bets: Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.20