3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

GEELONG V WESTERN BULLDOGS

Friday 18 June @ GMHBA Stadium

These split rounds are killers aren't they! No one knows when a game is on and the season splutters for three weeks – why not have a full week off for an All-Star weekend instead?

Anyway, having gotten off the soapbox, what we are left with in the five games is a potential Grand Final match up.

In front of anywhere between zero and who knows how many, it will be literally a real cat and dog fight with the winner having quite a few brownie points to take into the second half the season.

Geelong had a confidence re-enforcing victory away from home last week in Adelaide. Port at one stage held a three plus goal buffer but the Cats snaffled that back by half time and even after relinquishing the lead into the last, they ran away late.

They probably proved that right now, they must be in the conversation for the title. Now whether June form stands up in three months, only that famous thing called time will tell.

But the building blocks are there. Especially considering it was the first sign of Dangerfield in a while and he didn't really impact heavily. In fact it was a strange ole game in that almost every Geelong player had double figure disposals and only two topped 20. That screams a whole-of-team effort.

Once again they did have the three talls kick 12 between them. That is a great system when it works. The mids will have to contribute more come finals time because the big defences could calm them down.

But that is where Dangerfield could be a big factor. He can be swung forward and even if he isn't the straightest of kicks, at least he can create that contest too. The mid-season rest might be so beneficial for him.

They face the Bulldogs who've had the bye and they too play off a dominant away win. They went all the way to Perth for it and having the bye off that road trip leaves them in a great position.

While Fremantle are not going to pose massive threats to the better teams, they can pull out a good one now and then. Well the Dogs led from the jump and while close at stages, also drew clear late.

Naturally Macrae led the possession count but not all his are important. So many of the Captain's are and Bontempelli showed he's the best player of the first half the season with a total package. He gets the ball, he kicks goals, he breaks tackles and makes tackles, he can mark and imposes his will on the game.

It will take probably one coach to get their big dog to go head to head with the Bont. Throw a Cotchin or Petracca or maybe this week a Dangerfield on him and negate each other?

They do have the luxury that the midfield kicks goals. That aspect is so critical if their tall forward line gets held and Bruce with Naughton could have that occur as we get on.

Had this been played at Marvel the footy universe might have been very well prepared to tip the Bulldogs. That is their home but the Cats would not have had the luxury of their own dunghill as they will here.

Plus there is the issue of game style. The longer/narrower ground means the ball will be congested toward the centre and won't allow freer movement to a wider expanse.

Given the Dogs like to flick the handballs around and get to the outside via that method, the Cats may overcrowd the field and make that strategy more difficult.

It will mean at least one more kick to the forwards so those talls will need to be doing plenty of running to wings and across CHF.

That also helps Hawkins, Cameron et al at the other end. The spread keeps them further apart. It could tell all.

Geelong should be tipped most times when at home. Even against a top team which they don't always get to play at Kardinia Park.

Match Selection: Geelong by 17 points

Suggested Bets: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.05