3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
FREMANTLE V GEELONG
Thursday 15 July @ Optus Stadium
Many thought the season could not get any stranger and then Round 17 occurred. But now the virus has had another crack at it.
One state's teams are excluded from home likely for the rest of the year, the champion team losing four on the bounce in insipid ways and more upsets than a kid drinking off milk.
What it does for sure is it takes any certainty out of matches and as a neutral, that is all you can ask for when viewing.
Thursday night contains two current Top Eight sides where a loss for either offers up annoying implications for that.
Fremantle has not been on a feature FTA night seemingly since their Ross Lyon days. They have changed a bit but not all that much.
By golly there is one thing the Dockers must do – KICK STRAIGHT!!! It won't just cost them winning finals, it can cost them even just making it.
That said, Launceston was a much better experience. Away from Perth at a ground that Hawthorn has traditionally constricted opponents on, they did Nat Fyfe's 200th proud.
Once they got some control midway through the first, and Rory Lobb kept clunking it, they settled and gave the Hawks nothing. Despite being the better team entering the game, upsets were the weekend staple so they did well to hold firm.
Fyfe certainly played his part in his milestone but those who they have invested heavily in (Brayshaw, Serong, Cerra) were massive contributors. And they need to be going forward.
Fyfe and the redoubtable Mundy seemingly playing game 834, can't always be the torchbearers. Another who is to be reckoned with is ruckman Sean Darcy.
He's taken the Sandilands mantle and run with it (and tapped with it). He's got that spot for however long the body wants it.
They've got Geelong at a time when wins for them keep them right in the race but a loss can impact on Top Four slots come August.
Let's be honest. It wasn't pretty against Carlton. 3 goals to 1 at halftime is hardly ratings inspiring. It was an even effort across the group without any standouts from their leaders. Cameron injured and Selwood managed for the weekend clearly affected them.
But Dangerfield only needed 18 touches and they still forged clear late. Stewart, Tuohy and Henderson are holding them firm out back in the manner of Harley, Mackie and Scarlett from the golden days.
However the one caveat is they seem susceptible at least one period in one game when the opponent gets hold of them. Brisbane did it in spades while the Dogs did it but succumbed late.
That feeling that those older, slower legs might run out of steam is definitely a reasonable thought. The long season plays its part. The counter argument is with that week off pre-finals, they get a short, sharp recharge.
The history of these two is such a swings and roundabout. Anything can and has happened. The likelihood that Freo can explode off an overall percentage of 97 compared to 125 is worth debating.
But heading home might well counter any negativity. If Lobb and his forward mates like Treacy can keep on clunking plus Michael Walters spices up with a few, Geelong have some hurdles. The big body mids will press Geelong too.
And you have the spectre of Optus Stadium and all that that brings for the home team. It's a bonus they thought was unworkable as long ago as three weeks.
Tipping Fremantle is good value here. Can they take it with both hands?
Match Selection: Fremantle by 8 points
Suggested Bets: Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.40
