3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

ESSENDON V SYDNEY

Saturday 31 July @ the Gabba

With a history of close, VERY close games, two potential finalists round out Saturday night at of all places – the Gabba. You'd get long odds of that being thought of as a possibility previously.

There has been a contrast in effort and a contrast in belief between the two teams this year despite both effectively in the formative years of rebuilding.

One seems to know its course while the other isn't able to maintain that for long enough. That is not to say it won't come but it's likely 2021 won't be that year. Then again there is a real possibility they could face off in an Elimination Final so psychologically it could be important.

Essendon are annoyed they have to play home games away from Melbourne as Victoria looks to come out of its COVID hiatus. Tell that to the Swans or Giants who have been hubbing for six weeks and await the first sight of their families in a while.

The Bombers let a real opportunity slip on the Gold Coast. They had GWS on the ropes at half time and just had to finish the job. A good solid half of football would then build a foundation for the last month.

Well what happened next was the Giants only allowed one more goal and the result was overturned. Likely the key was the lack of participation of their Rolls-Royce midfielders.

All year they have relied on Merrett and in particular Darcy Parish. The latter has been knocking up with 30 plus possessions and been given a good sounding for the Brownlow.

A lovely tag on him by Coach Leon Cameron left him stranded on just 15 and the midfield felt like it was constricted. Once that occurred it also meant someone like Stringer was unable to be the finishing touches. They were impotent thereafter.

Historically they have been dined out on by one Lance Franklin. He has a 13&4 record over Essendon and averaged 4.2 per match with a career high against all opponents of 73 goals.

That looked no issue after his suspension but once it was overturned on appeal, you could hear the Bomber tears from Windy Hill.

Giving Franklin a freshen up might have been a good idea but of course he plays when able. Plus it would have allowed someone like their future in Logan McDonald to experience a big game.

Remember his debut was under lights at the Gabba to begin the year and boy was that some show against the Lions. Add in Sam Reid getting game time – you just never know in a major match how something you never planned for may be needed.

Can they get the No 5 to rock 'n' roll like he did against Fremantle. Longmire left Heeney one out at stages and he thrived. He occasionally moves in and out of a match but that be put down to his prior injury concerns and playing that wing/half forward flank doesn't lend itself to total game destruction.

But you could see him winning a Norm Smith Medal in a Sydney Grand Final win in the future – he is that sort of damaging unit.

Should the Swans bring the pressure game to Brisbane then Essendon may not handle it over four quarters. They out tackled the Dockers who were hamstrung it must be noted.

They are playing an attractive game with precision kicking and so much flow. It is as foreign to Sydney fans as one can imagine.

The Match Committee's first magnet will be George Hewett to Darcy Parish. He is not just a tagger but when he does he's usually good at it.

Sydney will get back Mills and Cunningham from their isolation placements. They'll be like caged lions.

The Bloods have nailed down that finals berth while Essendon hasn't and given the Swans are not that likely to snag a Top Four spot, they could be vulnerable.

Just a hunch but the Bombers have no excuses and seem value. But trust is a big thing here. Essendon get one last chance.

Match Selection: Essendon by 2 points

Suggested Bets: Essendon 1-39 @ $3.60