3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

MELBOURNE V BRISBANE

Saturday 28 August @ Adelaide Oval

Two teams could not enter week one of the finals in any more of an emotional high. They weren't getting sugar hits – they were getting a fairy floss embossed Easter egg melting over some neopolitan ice cream.

And both of them left it later than Chautauqua to get what that required. It made for extraordinary television – aren't we so glad to have Anthony Hudson giving his all in that Gabba cauldron.

It is hard to deny just how much Melbourne got out of that comeback at the Cattery. They were dead. Geelong had it under control. Their surge was unable to be stopped. THEN IT DID.

When you kick six straight goals to none in the final quarter (including the one after the siren) against an elite team, you've had a good day.

But add on what it meant and where it occurred, and that becomes triple the value. It was a seismic moment. You can only think of your Demon mates who've lived through years of mayhem to be where they are right now.

The ONLY issue now is we still have 3 (or 4) games to be negotiated. The early crow is not what is required.

No matter how important you think Lever and May, Gawn and Petracca as well as the following posse are, when Clayton Oliver has his way with the centre clearance, it means so much to Melbourne.

He is their barometer. Anyone in a final who has 37 possessions, 9 clearances, an even share of kick to handball ratio and nails 2 goals will be BOG. Well in a quasi-final that is what he did.

Not even sure a tag will work on Oliver. Just accept that he will get it plenty of times and limit kicks off half back like Salem and Langdon.

They still have to show the forward line will fire on the biggest of stages but kicking 12 goals at Geelong is a very nice return. McDonald is a little rusty, Brown and Fritsch must gel and Pickett will excite but now faces the pressure of a finals campaign.

But that said, the defence is such a rock that you will need a crusher to break them down. Their deniability will see them go a long way.

And that will be crucial as they will have to deny waves and waves from the Lions. That is how they play. They are a big momentum flow side.

It's not just a reliance on Joe Daniher to kick goals even though he has done that every game of 2021. It is the flow from Rich and McCluggage, Neale and Robinson. Zorko, Bailey and Lyons make it a tsunami in maroon and blue (and yellow for Fitzroy fans).

Since Eric Hipwood went down with his knee, many feared they would struggle including me. Not so much for the score but the structure. They have begun to gain more from that band of midfielders. And Charlie Cameron is capable of winning a final by himself.

They will be trying to stretch Melbourne on the Adelaide Oval. Obviously this is a match up that you would never expect on this ground.

Strangely this is the second time they've met in 2021. The first one was in Sydney and the second in Adelaide. What a year 2021 has been. May it never happen again!

If you remember back to that game at Giants Stadium, Brisbane got out to a good lead by half time but then the attack on the ball from the Demons almost scared and scarred the Lions. The second half was an obliteration of pressure. Nine goals to three emphatically represented that.

Assuming Melbourne hasn't left too many chips on the table from last week, they are a better all-around side than Brisbane. Reckon they should be the shortest of the favourites in the four finals but for some reason they are the longest now.

Their pressure can have Brisbane unable to get the right entries. Not that they are a silky entry team anyway, preferring to put it on Joe's head or let Charlie make the most of a chaos scramble.

Petracca comes off a quiet night. He won't have that happen twice.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 17 points

Suggested Bets: Christian Petracca 25 possessions/1+ goal @ $2.20