3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

PORT ADELAIDE V GEELONG

Friday 27 August @ Adelaide Oval

After the complete madness of the weekend's matches, we almost come back to some serenity in the Finals – that is an utter lie by the way.

Aren't we glad the momentum generated by that game of snakes and ladders will be flowed on with, as opposed to a pre-Finals bye. What a mood killer that would have been.

As a result of those frivolities, it is Port that snag a home final for the second year on the trot but this one was more unexpected.

That is not to say they don't deserve it given their charge home. They've got a five goal breeze in their sails. It could be hard to hold back.

What made Port's effort to gain the double chance even more impressive was that at stages of the Bulldogs game, they were almost done and dusted.

They were jumped early, got back to level, went three goals down again and had the temerity to hit the front late only for that late kick and rushed behind to secure victory.

Absolute credit to their durability and confidence not to panic under extreme pressure. It was driven by midfield leaders and those forward and back of the ball holding their own.

Ollie Wines and Travis Boak have been pillars all year and only now is their true value being celebrated by much of the punditry with their ascent to second spot.

While Boak is a rock and can be relied upon for consistency and that depth of experience when needed, it is Wines that has stepped up for undeniably his best season.

That flashing blonde mane and big tree trunk legs could be propelled to the Brownlow. It seems like a formula that many umpires will latch onto. Much will depend on how Bontempelli early and Oliver later poll. Should be heads bobbing late in the count.

But they will need to be at their best even with Geelong bringing in losing form. It's almost hard to believe that could be the case. They were seven goals up with a half to play. That is not how you want to enter the finals losing that sort of situation – especially to a contender as that can be drawn upon.

Somehow, even at home, they could only kick two goals from then on, with none in the last. Melbourne managed to find nine post the main break.

Perhaps that last 30 seconds sums up the concern some have with Geelong in the biggest of games. The kick out of bounds, the punch out of bounds, the kick to the hotspot and the goal after the siren. It seems a perfect storm but the lack of discipline gets magnified on the biggest stage.

Dangerfield not being on the field for such a long period of time was strange and maybe explainable. But it is those amounts of play that oppositions need to take advantage of. The loss of Mitch Duncan was really felt then as Selwood can't drag all of them along. Duncan back in now is of great benefit but he could be rusty.

Then tack on no Stewart to solidify the backline and it becomes even more of a hurdle. Actually it is more like Becher's Brook. There is no way he'd have allowed the Gawn mark to take place.

These two have had some ups and downs. Geelong got the Power this year at this venue back in June. It also had a wild swinging timeline.

But recall Port won the corresponding Final ten months ago with a tad to spare. That shows just how close this could come down to. Like all finals this weekend, they are coin tosses really.

There is one gnawing thing that still sits in the background. While they beat the Dogs, with that team limping to September, is that true finals form? Geelong might be able to take advantage of some weaknesses down back but have they the strength to hold the Power forwards – both small and large?

The Cats need to show the scars have been wiped very quickly. There is no better chance to do so against a rival on their home deck. There will be no 2007 Grand Final aftermath here. It will be hand to hand combat – contest to contest.

If Geelong bomb it in then Aliir and Jonas will have a field day. But that is not their methodology. They are a lead and mark set up. So it will be critical Cameron and Hawkins kick straight and do that early to gain scoreboard pressure.

The other big factor is the ruck. The Cats are renowned for how poorly they do it in big games and the Power rely on Lycett and Ladhams. What a contrast.

The longer it is close, the more that will play on Port's mind. And this final will be close. A dry night won't matter. It could also be a slow, kick and mark style game. That was how Port resurrected last week.

Have the slightest…SLIGHTEST of inklings Port will get the job done as they have a few more clutch players. Robbie Gray has no peer in that regard.

Watch the small forwards to inject themselves in bursts and Geelong may not handle that. Rozee to kick a few during those.

Match Selection: Port Adelaide by 7 points

Suggested Bets: Connor Rozee 2+ goals @ $3.75 & 3+ goals @ $11.00