3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

GEELONG V GWS

Friday 3 September @ Optus Stadium

Such a quandary is always Semi-Final weekend of the AFL finals. Do you take the losers from the Qualifying Final or the winners from Elimination Finals?

And the first of the Semis – which is the second by name (explain that to the uninitiated) is even more of a brain scratcher given the emotional trauma that must be going through Geelong minds.

Tie that in with how they played and the circumstances of their matches last weekend and you'd be making good money as each club's Psychologist.

Geelong was slight outsiders against Port Adelaide but were given a good hope to win even away from home. They had won there before, had more experience and plenty of big names.

Plus Mitch Duncan was back and he was perceived as an intrinsic part of their make up. All things pointed to Geelong bouncing back from their fade out against Melbourne at home when they lost their hosting rights hopes.

Once they got to the Adelaide Oval it went backwards from the start. They kept bombing it in to their talls up forward and it kept coming back with Aliir Aliir's name on it.

The Cats simply couldn't handle pace on the ball. The speed of play on, the ball movement and the man movement by the Power made those older legs chase and they didn't enjoy that.

Geelong tried to play slowly, and yet their denying of the ball didn't work once they handed it over. It was returned in spades and they looked like sloths by comparison.

Out of that they lost their tagger O'Connor hamstrung and the resulting story of Patrick Dangerfield having to fight through a serious hand injury will not make those at the Cattery any more at peace.

The question is can they return with the presence they are capable of? Duncan got plenty of the sherrin on his long awaited return but much of it was off half back and even in the backline. It was hardly in dangerous spots on the ground.

Selwood was well closed down and the big boppas up front had three goals between them. Another Rohan fade out will not inspire for the coming weeks.

Now they must conjure a way to get over GWS who have been on a roll and saw off the gallant Swans in that heart stopper (for bloods fans mainly) in Launceston.

Having gotten five goals up and seemingly in control with several goals after the sirens, the last quarter and a half was one way traffic.

It wasn't the first time they've been forced to garner a lead and simply hold on without scoring. Collingwood in 2019 will happily hand over that mantle from that Prelim.

They bullied the Sydney midfield early on which to be honest was no surprise given who was missing from their opponents. What was a touch strange was that they couldn't keep going.

Somehow Sydney fought back and really should have won. They had countless attempts at set shots and snaps and either missed or kept hitting the post. Four times they could have regained the lead but only got one point closer then fell point short.

But credit GWS. They had a plan to slow it down from the backline to about the edge of the square on the attacking side then kicked it quickly to Hogan, Himmelberg, Greene etc.

Hogan had his best game of football really given the circumstances. He marked everything including those at crucial times.

However the elephant in the room must be addressed. What was Toby Greene thinking? The defence has been as humorous as those who enjoy a good knock-knock joke. Deserved of every bit of the penalty and more.

Penalty is as much punishment for a 'crime' as it is a deterrent for the future. He puts himself in places no sensible player should.

Now without him in another big Final, can GWS get themselves into a position where it is Geelong who will hear the footsteps?

If Dangerfield plays and plays well, even with the game in far away Perth, hard to see the Cats not winning. They've played Ok over there whereas GWS has had some issues. Just recall last year when the Swans beat them up.

Some rain is predicted in the lead up which, if continued to Friday, may well aid the Giants contesting well but they'll face a more solid midfield this week and one that is so annoyed and surely hungry.

Still thinking Geelong will have something to fight back with. The ins for them are so positive and the outs for GWS so negative – green(e) with envy you might say.

Both teams will play it slow but at least that won't hurt the Cats as much as Port did. It has a low scoring, tight outcome written all over it.

Match Selection: Geelong by 13 points

Suggested Bets: Points Under 152.5 @ $1.90