3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

PORT ADELAIDE V WESTERN BULLDOGS

Saturday 11 September @ Adelaide Oval

Once more we have a replay of the last round of the year when the Western Bulldogs lost their shape and their form and a certain Top 4 position as Port Adelaide came to Melbourne and won a closely fought affair.

Still, this was where they all still wanted to land in the second last week of the season with the chance to make the Grand Final and so now the Power face those Bulldogs in Adelaide for the right to travel over to Perth.

That Friday night at Marvel Stadium was only 10 goals to 9 under the roof (ironically it was the winner kicking less goals) and you can't see that sort of return being the case again unless it is a damp night in Adelaide. That isn't even predicted.

The psychological impact of that match was that there were several three goal swings which looked to totally switch the momentum. After jumping them early, Port got it back then lost it then gained it.

Lycett dominated the ruck and gave English a bath. So much so that Luke Beveridge even had Bontempelli rucking in the forward structure.

Port Adelaide, now with the week off, come off demolishing the Cats at home.

With Aliir sweeping and marking all the bombing going on by Geelong early, they had command of the skies. That doesn't mean that will happen again here.

They also had an opponent who was fumbling and bumbling around in the back line. That is one thing that could happen again even if the Dogs have a good day.

The great news from Week 1 of the finals was that it didn't have any tension associated with it. Wines and Boak conquered the middle and allowed the flair of Rozee, Butters, Gray and others around the ground.

Ken Hinkley will need to be aware that his rival coach is a motivator and will play the underdog card. That is dangerous in a Prelim but there are specific reasons for that.

Injuries look like curtailing this as big a contest as it could have been.

Marcus Bontempelli has not missed a bunch of matches collectively in any season for years. Then he suffers a knee in the last 3 minutes of the final.

You'd say he'd be rested in any sort of normal period of the season. This is not the normal period of the season.

His knee looked serious and has to retard his ability to not only contest the ball but even get to contests themselves. His greatness is his explosive nature. He surely won't be exploding out of the midfield. But they need his presence.

You also have Cody Weightman's situation. A head knock is a head knock but Club's accept a concussive event more than they worry about a hamstring. He won't play and that is a good thing.

They then lose Alex Keath late in the week which is huge down back on big Charlie. The match up will be tough for whoever it ends up.

The one thing you need is continuity and the Bulldogs have never been that way all season – most of which has been of their own making at selection but this is where it counts.

Would Tim English be able to ruck the whole game? He was being shepherded from that to end the season but now there is no time for hiding. You get found out in the last fortnight. So they've added Stef Martin and rolled that dice.

The Coaching Move: Aliir Allir has been such an influence across the half back line, rebounding but as importantly simply taking possession away from rivals with his marking rather than punching.

Much like with Lever in the first Prelim, play a tagging half forward on him. With so many supposed big midfield options for Beveridge, could the Bont himself tag Aliir?

Any restriction on his movement may not allow a huge possession, explosive nature in the centre of the ground. Make a presence and move Aliir under the ball. Marcus is such a smart footballer you know he could do it.

This game comes down to the scoreboard pressure. Either way could be telling. Port gaining a jump will give the Bulldogs that feeling that they don't really belong. Their two opponents to now haven't played their best.

But should the Dogs be up say five goals to one at Quarter Time, the 'Never Tear Us Apart' crowd might be finding other INXS tunes to sing unless it turned around.

However can't see that happening here. There is too much presence at ground level forward of the ball to make Port more vulnerable than Brisbane were. They got little from those apart from Cameron and still just lost by a point.

Port Adelaide will do enough in the middle with Wines, Boak, Amon, Drew etc to not be overwhelmed.

There is a sneaky chance this is not even close.

Match Selection: Port Adelaide by 32

Suggested Bets: Port Adelaide 25+ @ $2.35