3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

MELBOURNE V WESTERN BULLDOGS

Saturday 25 September @ Optus Stadium

7.15pm AEST

In a Replay of the 1954 Grand Final, two fiercely Victorian teams almost come out of the Victorian-era to meet in a classic contest over in Perth.

While the Demons have 12 VFL/AFL Flags to their name, they haven't won one since 1964 and the Bulldogs took their most recent out just five years ago but only have two in total to their name.

Their other one was in fact that 1954 defeat of the Demons in a game which included two of the greatest names ever to grace the footy field in Australia – Ted Whitten and Ron Barassi.

All that as a pre-cursor, you cannot suggest how unbelievably exciting and thoroughly engrossing this 2021 Grand Final sets up given where it is being played, how the teams enter and what they leave behind.

Both have their nautical followers scrambling for the Beaufort Scale as they literally have a Force 12 gale behind their sails. They are flying to the line.

This will be the third time they've met in 2021. They met back in late May when the Demons started brilliantly at an empty Marvel Stadium and were never headed to win by 28.

Matters were reversed when things were swapped to the MCG and it was the Dogs prevailing by 20 in really what was a similar game of dominance but with a different outcome.

So the scoreboard and any fake play for the underdog card either way cannot be directly taken from the fixtures of the season. They both have some ticks and crosses from 2021.

The oddity of this Grand Final, apart from it being played a zillion miles from the MCG, is the two week break. Whether you agree with that determination by AFL decision makers or think the entire momentum of the season is lost is a moot point – it's happening.

While we aren't America and this isn't the SuperBowl requiring extraordinary media following and accreditation validation, it will surely be aided by the game being in Perth where the originality and novelty of their first GF should sustain the interest. Perhaps it will only be Victorian supporters who are least pleased.

The one risk that it brings is a snap wipe-out of a crowd should a stray Covid case hit Perth. Remember twice this season the Optus Stadium venue has been converted to a hollow shell at a moment's notice.

All from AFL Head Office to the Premier's Department will have the rosary beads out.

What that two week break will ensure is effectively we will have no significant injury concerns heading into 25 September. It's not what we thought coming out of the First Prelim nor heading into the Second one.

But now we surely see the two pillars of May and Lever able to recover well enough from their leg concerns on their side. And then those alarms going into Adelaide where Bontempelli played and Keath/Weightman missed for different issues should be reset by the time Saturday arrives.

How could you not be mesmerised by what Melbourne did to a forlorn, slow and utterly ill-prepared Geelong for what was to hit them between the eyes.

They were hypnotic. When you have a 6'30" ruckman kicking five goals, running out of the centre and slotting them 55 out, grabbing the ball out of the ruck Gary Ablett Snr style to snag one and then plucking contested marks over three defenders, you know it's been a good day.

Max Gawn effectively got them to the Minor Premiership (ironically against that same team) and then drove the final stake in.

He blew them away with his craft, his skill, his desire and his creativity. Geelong has long been criticised for their ruck stocks. Not sure if Simon Madden AND Dean Cox combined were playing in this game that they'd have stopped him.

And once he brought the ball to ground, he had those willing allies at his feet enthusiastically pumping it forward. The great news was that it wasn't Clayton Oliver that needed to have near 40 possessions to get them home.

Petracca was brilliant – slicing through packs and hitting people lace out. That isn't always his way as it isn't for many top midfielders. But it was Jack Viney with head down and steamroller goggles on. It was Langdon and Brayshaw off wings and it was Salem creating off half back.

Then if as a collective effort you think you are through, you need to get by May and Lever along with Petty and Hibberd. Now while their injury issues were biting the nails time for Melbourne fans on the night, it seems that form of nervousness is alleviated now.

But through the excitement, the elation and potentially the early crow, came the realisation of what Saturday night was and that threw the proverbial spanner in the works.

You could have predicted what Melbourne did to Geelong – one doubts many had 71 points between the Dogs and Port. And perhaps if they did it was to the home team.

Let's leave aside the ineptitude of the Power. Talk about kangaroos in the headlights there. The positive way in which the Western Bulldogs dismantled them right from the opening bounce was clinical.

Totally demolished in contested ball, it was seven goals to one at Quarter Time and you could forget any Adelaide party.

What was most impressive was the tactical acumen on display. There was no way Aliir was going to spend his night floating over packs and marking bombing raids.

Josh Schache had a role to do. He had to engage, disturb and make Aliir's job more accountable. By having him answerable to an attacker it meant Naughton could have a run at most forays and then if not marking it, bringing it to ground for the followers led by the mullet of Bailey Smith – appropriate he would fire in SA.

Once that scoreboard pressure began to mount, it took away the Port A-Game of bringing in the home crowd. It was more a silent prayer than any song INXS could play. They were Always Torn Apart not Never.

So much so they could afford to do as Melbourne did and rest the stars in the last Quarter. It was like an All-Australian meeting on both benches.

Now both teams enter the Grand Final full of gusto and perhaps bravado. No doubt both coaches have that aim of the underdog tag up their sleeve but the reality is how can you deny the way they have attacked the Final Series.

Not actually sure who has more attack in them. In the end will that be the way the game is played? Could we somehow see it being a tactical, dour affair?

Melbourne has been at their best when surging. Getting the wheels in motion, flying through the centre of the ground and trying to hit targets. If not then Pickett and Harmes and Spargo can rove away.

The Dogs are more likely to want the contest and then flick handballs around. They aren't ever going to be a beautiful team to watch (unless you are a supporter) but they will be relentless. Bontempelli will love that fortnight off. He is the one with the skill set to cause carnage.

Oliver and Petracca, along with Gawn are a rather handy middle three at the first bounce. It doesn't guarantee they'll win it each time but halving of it will then make them post-clearance so dangerous.

The Coaching Move (Bulldogs): Last week we hinted someone to curtail the Aliir influence would be a move that could pay dividends. Lord how it did but we got the wrong player. The Bont was in far better shape than predicted but Schache did a great job.

You would have to consider it again if you are Beveridge for Lever. Especially if there is any sort of concern about the May hammy.

The Coaching Move (Demons): While there are many of the Bulldogs that would be tagging types for most teams, given they have so many options it may be tough to do. Jack Macrae will probably get 30+ again and Bontempelli will be most destructive. So put time into Treloar and certainly Smith. Don't let him become their barometer.

This is such a great game in prospect mainly because both are not just on a roll but have so many angles of attack. If anything it could be who defends best that wins.

Something tells me Melbourne has the skill not to panic should they suddenly be three goals down early. It might be harder the other way.

In Oliver, Gawn and Petracca they have three of the best in the game as a whole leave alone on this paddock. That must count for something.

Once again the Dogs need to start fast. History more beckons for the Demons so if they do start to wobble it surely impacts them more.

But we're going for Melbourne to break the drought despite the one game in a month.

Would be so happy for some friends who aren't just long suffering but let's face it, they cannot want the cheese platter tags to last any longer. No trips to the snowfields in 2021 and for a few years you'd think.

If they do win, Oliver is likely to have had such an influence that it would be an attraction to the Norm Smith voters. But if not watch for Jack Viney to get the red mist flying and bulldoze a few.

A sneaky one if the Dogs do get up would be Bailey Dale kicking exquisitely off half back and setting up raids as he has done all year.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 16 points

Suggested Bets: Clayton Oliver – Norm Smith Medal @ $7.00

Suggested Bets: Jack Viney – Norm Smith Medal @ $21.00

Suggested Bets: Bailey Dale – Norm Smith Medal @ $67.00