3 minute read

Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.

We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.

MELBOURNE V ST KILDA

Sunday 8 May @ MCG

Now this is a chance to be a significant final come September. Obviously one team has to keep improving but there are good signs from the season as a whole. Oh and the other is Melbourne.

When it is 1 v 4 two months into the year, you have a body of work which offers some substantiation to the form.

St Kilda has been competitive with Melbourne of late but not quite getting the job done. It was a good game early last season with the usual suspects getting the right moves for the eventual champs.

Move forward 14 months and both teams have gotten better. It is hard to remember when the Demons last lost a game and St Kilda has rebounded after a shocking year in 2021.

So what do we expect here? Well Melbourne were tradesman-like against Hawthorn. Challenged early, they steadied and while a couple of times it looked like the lesser side could make a play, the class and confidence of the Premiers held firm.

As mentioned before, those usual suspects of Oliver and Petracca just did the nice things at the nice times when the Hawks couldn't afford it. It was a quick handpass into space here or a clearance there and their team was off and running.

They probably are still not at full power yet – best of luck to the team who runs into that freight train. Gawn is still that constant level of commitment, especially when he rolls back and marks incoming bombs.

Teams will need to know to beat them you have to run and carry or hit up shorter leads. Putting it on Max's head won't work.

So how do St Kilda work it given Max King loves the ball where few can get to it? His height helps that and on top of it, his jump and reach sets him ten feet off the ground.

They hit a speed bump last week in Cairns but to be fair anything can happen on those greasy, slippery North Queensland evenings. 5.13 to 4.18 is a pretty decent representation of that.

They'll be disappointed to lose having gotten a lead and still being in front until late. Often in foreign conditions it is who handles it best, first. Well here Port Adelaide ran them down.

They need Membrey to give King that option. Even if he's not going to be the one to win the game off his own boot, multiple dangerous figures in the forward are a necessity. This is ever so the case with as good a defence as Melbourne has.

Plus Ryder and Marshall have the capabilities to challenge Gawn and Jackson in the middle plus around the ground like few other combinations.

To now, Melbourne is 2.5 points a game better in attack and 6 points a game better in defence. That doesn't lend itself to a blowout scenario.

Percentage is a great tool for some approximation of talent and form. On that score, can the Saints defenders hold the Demons forwards for long enough? Ben Brown has been in good form so his goal kicking can continue.

Until such times as Melbourne show us they are having a dull period or injury strikes, it's just easy to tip them as the likely winners.

Match Selection: Melbourne by 11 points

Suggested Bets: Ben Brown 3+ goals @ $2.25