3 minute read

Now that the Cricket World Cup is over, Racing and Sports will cover the oldest and most important Test Series played between cricketing nations.

We'll look at who can win the Urn and maybe an investment or two to enjoy through the wee hours if you watching in Australia.

ENGLAND V AUSTRALIA

Third Test

22-26 August 2019 @ Leeds

They say speed kills…and it nearly did!

They also say a week is a long time in politics. Well in cricket, that axiom held rather true from the first to the second test.

One asks why we'd even bring up the Glenn McGrath ankle roll as we did before Lord's and momentum can move quickly these days.

From a perception of a state of parlous as England left Edgbaston, even a draw at Lords was being construed as a win.

The reason was totally based around the excitement of Jofra Archer and the horrible nature of the loss of Steve Smith.

Firstly the positive and Archer lived up to the hype, borne of the World Cup heroics. He charged in at 150 plus clicks and roared it up the Aussies.

Hostility, bounce, movement, aggression, control were all on show. As important, he held it for 44 overs. It was easily the most overs bowled by the hosts.

That was the marker people put on his selection at first class level. He has only been known as a top player in the short form of the game. Could he stretch it to the five day game?

Well he nailed Smith and then Labuschagne and that could only put some fear into opposing batsman.

The carry on after the now famous incident is such a reflection of today's society – driven in a social media age.

Everyone commenting on still frames and images through their own prism of outrage. The focus on Archer and his reaction seems harsh in the extreme.

Few of the outraged would believe his response when he said "To see him go down, everyone stopped and everyone's heart skipped a beat. After he got up he was moving around and you breathe a sigh of relief. No-one wants to see anyone getting carried off on a stretcher."

Perhaps all could heed the words of the great Ian Chappell – as macho an Australian Captain as has ever led men onto the field.

When confronted with a similar set of circumstances after Dennis Lillee hit a batsman, his disposition was to tell his quickie to go back to the top of his mark and let the rest check on him.

However he added he'd be disappointed if DK didn't check on the batsman's health after play.

Chappelli's human instincts are some of the best in life, leave alone sport. His views should be a course well followed.

The likelihood is that Archer is a shy young man on debut that didn't want to see what had happened. He was hardly a chiselled 50 test veteran who had read the Douglas Jardine playbook. The future now will tell what his par score is on this front as he could hit plenty more players.

Archer's test to come is that he has to back it up both in terms of performance and the physical nature of the game. Time can only tell there. And one must not forget what Pat Cummins did on debut winning a test at Wanderers so it isn't uncommon for a sight unseen.

And many others have had even better debuts in terms of figures. You would think it was the second coming of FS Trueman given the momentous happenings. He was thrilling though.

The other side of that coin was the impact on the hero from Birmingham.

Steve Smith's contribution to the series, on many levels, has been stark. The narrative going onto Headingley is surely he won't be playing and thus how is it possible that Australia are competitive without him?

Simply by the numbers, of the three innings he has participated in he has scored 37% of the visitors' runs.

The ICC mandates a like-for-like replacement after a concussion failure. Quite clearly you could make the case that Australia were advantaged on the last day as Marnus Labuschagne came in for him and scored 38% of the runs in the fourth innings - haha.

But seriously Smith's post-hit influence, or lack thereof, might not just be felt if he is out.

Many players over the years have not been as good a batsman following such a blow. Certainly not as good with the short ball.

It is a totally natural physical reaction to have some circumspection. Avoiding pain, or the prospect of it, is what the body does.

While obviously not of the same quality, a classic example is Stuart Broad. He got clocked several years ago and has not been the same since with the bat – backing away to avoid conflict rather than getting into line.

Unambiguously, you can say if Smith can't take the field at the home of Yorkshire, Australia is significantly downgraded. That simultaneously arouses England.

Despite so much time lost, England was the better team and would have won the Second Test. In fact, had the few overs that were rained out to begin Day 5 remained, the series may be locked up right now.

The fragility of Australia's top order is patent. In four innings batted, the third wicket has fallen at scores of 35, 75, 60 & 47. That puts far too much pressure on the middle order.

Now that the Walls Of Jericho won't be there (assuming Smith is out), you'd have to doubt how Australia can contrive a score.

David Warner is struggling. 2, 8, 3 & 5 does not make for pretty viewing. He's stuck on the crease and either hit on the pads, had the castle knocked over or knicking off. Without his past record it's doubtful he'd survive.

Perhaps even more concerning is the holding of Cameron Bancroft as a critical member. Even if a valued team mate, performance is a necessity.

He has taken up plenty of balls but that is hardly everything. And reiterating his craft and skill at bat pad is not what gets an opener selected.

Bancroft has no balance through his shot. He's falling over with his head outside the line so it is no surprise he's going lbw.

For Australia the other quandary has to be what changes are made to the bowlers. Cummins and Lyon stay but will there be a seduction toward the speed of Pattinson AND Starc in order to fight fire with fire.

Leeds surely won't be as dry, two-paced and lacking in carry. All the players are backing up and that also adds to the tension. Many wrestle just with the mental side of that.

England isn't without their challenges. Burns (despite some scores), Root, Denly and Buttler have not been convincing. Roy has 40 runs in four digs.

They too would have been tempted to make changes but they can't add another quickie so maybe unaltered.

The tradition of Headingley is a vast chasm. England would only ever want to recall 1981. From Botham's famous century when following on and Bob Willis' eight-for through the Lillee/Marsh 500-1 plonk, that test is folkloric.

1989 is where the Aussies want to focus attention after being branded the worst team to leave our shores only to unexpectedly have England Alderman-ised on the last day – wrapping pads with regularity.

The upshot of everything though now is that Australia need only one win from the last three games to retain the Ashes. However you'd find it hard to see one of those occurring this week.

Momentum has swung but can it be sustained. England is not a great test team but they are not meeting a great test team sans their shining light.

Stokes has continued his batting form. He will likely end up the leading scorer from the locals. He will have to keep attacking as that is how he plays best.

James Pattinson has to be let loose one imagines. The irony is his brother played his only test at this very venue in 2008 - for England!

Headingley could be the clash of the titans. Australia might not have the batting depth but they can fire with the ball. Suspect it won't be enough but they might just take the risk.

The speed gun will be smoking in Yorkshire.

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