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2020 SUPERBOWL LIV PREVIEW – SAN FRANCISCO 49ers v KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

3 minute read

The biggest day in American sports comes up on Sunday (Monday morning AEST).

Who wins the Vince Lombardi Trophy?


SAN FRANCISCO V KANSAS CITY

Super Bowl LIV

2 February 2020 @ Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida

From the sporting field to the arena of commerce, nothing comes close to the spectacular that is the Super Bowl and the 54th edition shapes as a classic between San Francisco and Kansas City.

It is a ratings bonanza for the pertinent rights holders who take it in turns in a cycle – FOX (NFC principal rights), CBS (AFC principal rights) & NBC (Sunday Night Football rights).

You know it is big when it breaks historical records and the numbers continue to be astronomical.

It was well acknowledged that the most watched show in US television history was the finale of M.A.S.H., but the Super Bowl of 2010 finally knocked that piece of televisual genius off the top of the podium and it grows and grows.

Consider that the price of just a 30 second TV advertisement scaled more than USD$5m last year.

Get your shoulder pads on folks - let the big show begin
Get your shoulder pads on folks - let the big show begin Picture: Abbie Parr/Getty Images

We have two storied franchises with far different levels of success in the big games that will clash in Miami.

Kansas City last played in one way back 50 years ago in Super Bowl IV. They were one of the teams in the inaugural final, three years prior, when the NFL and AFL merged to create what is now known as the National Football League.

Their first owner Lamar Hunt was one of the founding fathers of the modern American football game and his name adorns the AFC Championship Trophy.

After such a long time away they return to face one of the great franchises in San Francisco. The 49ers began their time in the Super Bowl with a triumph in 1982.

Four more wins followed within a 13 year stretch. Their only loss came to Baltimore in 2013.

Some of the greatest names have played for San Fran. Joe Montana is an all-time legend. The quarterback from Notre Dame was at the helm when they won their first four SBs, winning the MVP title in three of them.

Ironically he was traded to Kansas City at the end of his career when another elite QB was his understudy. Left handed Steve Young would take his place and win the last of San Franscisco's titles.

The other player who immediately comes to mind when you think the 49ers is Jerry Rice. Voted one of the greatest players ever and many consider, because of his actual touchdown and yardage record, that he is in fact the best player to play the game.

Super Bowl LIV is off to Miami where it will host its 11th final, making it the most in history.

It conjures a clash of such a classic confrontation with a great defensive team against an all-out offensive juggernaut.

Contrasting styles are usually a great watch, fascinating to digest and causes of conundrums for both teams on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco has an elite defence, led by a superb D-Line with great linebackers and a Secondary that does not allow much. If you catch it on them, you don't get much YAC (yards after catch).

That front four led by Dee Ford (over from KC last year) and Nick Bosa cause all sorts of dramas for the Offensive Line and in particular opposing QBs. They have that great ingredient – speed!!

They rush the passer, pressure, knock down and sack at will. Consider that a Top 2 rated overall defence (SF – 2nd) has made the Super Bowl 20 times and their record sits at 15 wins.

If you avoid them then try to pass it with a Corner like Richard Sherman. He basically takes away half the field. Certainly his back end of the year, around a few weeks when out with a hamstring, has been excellent. They are a good Secondary.

He was a winner with Seattle as part of the 'Legion of Boom'. They were an extraordinary tough defensive line up. Now back home in his native California, he is back on top as part of a great defence.

The fascination of the Niners is their quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Having been Tom Brady's back up for many years, he was traded out west in 2017 seeking a first choice QB role.

He only threw an amazingly low eight passes in the NFC Championship game, completing six of them. SF scored 37 points and basically it was all on the ground.

Raheem Mostert was great rushing for 220 yards two weeks ago but they tend to 'pound the rock' by committee. He led their team but was only 26th around the league. Garoppolo surely will be required to throw it more in Miami.

But the player who best embodies this Niners team is Tight End George Kittle. He run blocks and pass blocks better than all other TEs – setting the edge for his running backs. He does come up with some great plays in offence too.

You can't forget his 4th & 2 catch, rumble and run which led to the game winning field goal against New Orleans.

Kittle is one tough hombre. He runs angry and plays angry. He is every chance to be the MVP should his team go on to win.

Now to the Chiefs and they are much more than their young QB. But reality is Patrick Mahomes is a gunslinger, much in the mould of the great Brett Favre. His style makes KC exciting to watch.

Mahomes is only 24 and already has been to two AFC Championship games and now his first Super Bowl. He would join the likes of Brady and Ben Roethlisberger as young winning quarterbacks.

He drifted to No 10 in his draft while others had their chance to take a QB. He was a perfect fit with his coach.

Coming from a baseball background as his father was an MLB pitcher, he made the choice to play football and boy was that a great move.

Nothing frightens him. He's been down double digits in both playoff games this January and overcome them easily.

Mahomes attacks first and then plays conservatively at second resort.

He does have a great Tight End in Travis Kelce who he goes to with regularity. He is his 'Get Out Of Jail-Free Card'.

He's also got a Wide Receiver in Tyreek Hill who can run like the wind. He's only short in stature but would almost give Usain Bolt a run for his money.

Don't go quietly on the Chiefs defence either. Since the halfway mark of this season, they've allowed just 16 PPG. Surely if that happens they win. Especially given Mahomes second quarter obliterations of teams recently.

The coaches are juxtapositions. Andy Reid, who was there with Philadelphia in 2005, gets his chance to coach a vibrant team with attack as its MO.

He has developed Mahomes and is so well respected across the league for his integrity and skills in advancing young coaches as well as players.

He is the seventh to reach two SBs with different teams and has the sixth most wins in NFL history as a coach.

Reid v Kyle Shanahan is somewhat of a contrast regarding their experience and yet there are similarities too. The 'West Coast Offence' will be in full show here. Shanahan is only 40 years old and is the son of Mike Shanahan who won two SBs with Denver in the late 90s.

His playbook is very wide and is not afraid to run jet sweeps, so much 'motion' and schemes that few others do. It keeps defences out of their comfort zone.

But the Shanahan DNA is to 'run the damn football' and the Chiefs are 26th against the rush. You can only think that physicality will be on show. It will attempt to keep the ball out of Mahomes hands. That also slows the KC pass rush by running it regularly.

However we must consider that San Francisco was about 5cm from being the 5th seed after the Seattle final week regular season match. Bar for the Dre Greenlaw's hit on the goal line, there is every chance his team would not be here. Moments matter when they matter most.

The match is such an even one despite the differentiation in style. The betting market shows that.

One of the interesting factors from the Regular Season was that quarterbacking of Mahomes (10th) and Garoppolo (12th) didn't see them high up the passing yards tallies. To be fair Mahomes missed two games mid-season. The point is you don't have to be totally pass heavy to win.

But in the Playoffs, Kansas City has dropped way behind in both games and won't want to give that away. That said they can come back.

San Francisco can't afford to get behind. Because of their style, they are a find the front and hold it team, pressuring the opposition with their great defence.

Thinking the two tight ends will be big influences here. Most look to the QBs but Kittle v Kelce is a great battle too.

With Mahomes going to throw it more, thinking Kelce is the man to watch and is worth a play for the first TD.

Both teams are averaging around 30PPG but under the pressure of a Super Bowl and not having faced each other this year so the scouting is more video based, finding it hard to see that many points scored.

Tipping the Chiefs 21-17 to begin what could be a dynasty if Mahomes gets off the mark here. He is a talent for the ages. San Fran probably has the best overall team – Kansas City has the best player. No lead is safe for SF.

Enjoy Super Bowl LIV for the game, the anthem, the entertainment via Jennifer Lopez and Shakira at half time and all that goes with the day.

Suggested bet - Super Bowl winner: Kansas City Chiefs @ $1.77
Suggested bet - First Touchdown: Travis Kelce @ $9.00
Suggested bet – To score a Touchdown: Travis Kelce @ $2.10

 


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