3 minute read
A look at where State of Origin III at ANZ Stadium will be won and lost for NSW and Queensland.
HOW WEDNESDAY'S STATE OF ORIGIN III CAN BE WON
NSW
* THE FITTLER EFFECT
Coach Brad Fittler has a chance to secure his place as NSW's second-most successful State of Origin coach. Only Phil Gould has won more than one series as a Blues mentor and Fittler could move ahead of the likes of Jack Gibson, Ricky Stuart, Wayne Pearce and Tommy Raudonikis by taking his second title in as many years at the helm.
* KLEMMER: BETTER LATE THAN NEVER
Undoubtedly the best front-rower in the game, despite being initially overlooked for game III. Ran for 147m in a 50-minute stint in game one and has averaged the second most metres of any forward this NRL season, only behind Jason Taumalolo.
* HOME RECORD
NSW are a better side at ANZ Stadium. The Blues have won 17 games, lost nine and drawn one at the venue. However, since 2014, NSW and Queensland have won three apiece.
* BIGGER IS BETTER
Fittler has found a great formula with big bodies in his back five in James Tedesco, Blake Ferguson, Jack Wighton and Tom Trbojevic. They all made 100-plus metres in game two and got the Blues' sets off to flying starts. Winger Josh Addo-Carr, Tedesco, Ferguson and Wighton ran for more metres than any other players.
* PEARCE HAS GOT HIS MOJO BACK
Recalled playmaker Mitchell Pearce has been in supreme form for Newcastle. He's second in the league for try involvements with 24 - only one less than Mitchell Moses. And he's first for line-break assists (20).
QUEENSLAND
* A DECISIVE HISTORY
In deciders, the Maroons have been the better team. Since 1982, the series has come down to game three on 19 occasions with Queensland winning 13 (including the past seven), NSW four and two draws. Even in deciders played in NSW, Queensland have the superior record with four wins, two losses and one draw.
* MUNSTER IS No.1
Two years ago, Cameron Munster put his hand up to inherit Billy Slater's No.1 jumper, declaring he felt most at home at fullback, only to make his mark at five-eighth. While they lose a lot without Kalyn Ponga, giving Munster licence to roam at fullback could free him up.
* CAN THE MAROONS GET IN PEARCE'S HEAD?
After 18 Origin games and seven series losses, including seven defeats playing in deciders, NSW playmaker Mitchell Pearce gets his shot at Origin redemption. Can the Maroons exploit any mental demons rattling around in his head?
* THE BOUNCE BACK
This is the biggest test yet of coach Kevin Walters' leadership. No doubt there will be a response from the Maroons after their game two drubbing. Traditionally the y perform best when they're being written off and have their backs to the wall.
* THEIR FRONT ROW
After under-performing in Perth, the Maroons look to have got their front row right. Joe Ofahengaue and Josh Papalii are the big bodies that can combat the Blues pack, while Tim Glasby and Christian Welch are noted defenders.
