Arcadia Queen - Can She Win The Everest?

Star WA mare Arcadia Queen stamped herself one of the best in the land in her maiden preparation and did little to alter those views at Rosehill on Saturday.

Arcadia Queen winning the Theo Marks
Arcadia Queen winning the Theo Marks Picture: Racing and Sports

On debut for the Chris Waller stable, Arcadia Queen lined up off a lengthy break (280 days) and while lacking top shelf opposition she again stamped herself as a genuine top liner.

Can she win The Everest? That's the question we will all get answered on October 19th, but where's the fun in waiting until then.

She rounded out her 3YO preparation rated 121 by Timeform, having taken a big step forward in the Kingston Town Classic off her dominant success in the WA Guineas [1600m].

Improving with each performance, she arguably should be unbeaten and hit her peaks at a mile and beyond.

That appears to be the main anchor in everyone questioning her chances in the Everest.

She won't be at her peak over that shorter trip, she'll be far better suited over a mile and beyond.

On current evidence that appears true, however a key characteristic of ratings is opportunity.

Yes her peaks were over further, however she's never been given the opportunity to run a high rating over a shorter trip, until Saturday.

The only time we have seen her over 1200m was on debut when racing clearly inferior horses.

Some will argue, well why then didn't she just beat them by further, but again the way the race was run, she simply didn't have the opportunity to, she can't defy physics.

In other words, they went so slowly early it reduces her opportunity to really put a margin on them, it would be like racing Usain Bolt over 20m as opposed to 100m, you are going to get a lot closer over 20m.

On Saturday we saw her line up short of a mile and produce a career peak performance, rated 121 by Timeform.

Yes she had all the favours, however she did it first up with obvious big targets to come.

While there are anomalies, the Chris Waller stable rarely produces their horses at their peak first up.

This is also highlighted in his win strike rate: first up> second up> third up (12%, 12%, 16%).

This suggests that her rating of 121 is unlikely to be her peak (this preparation) and hence it puts her right in the ballpark of winning an Everest.

Timeform Peak Ratings (Last 12 months)
Santa Ana Lane - 130
Ten Sovereigns - 129
Redzel - 126
Pierata - 125
Osborne Bulls - 123
In Her Time - 120
Sunlight - 119
Classique Legend - 114+
Enticing Star - 110

Once factoring in the mares' allowance her rating of 121 = 125, she's already a strong chance of running top four in the feature.

If she can build on that further, then all of a sudden she's a serious threat in the big dance.

Still feel the race hinges around both Santa Ana Lane and Ten Sovereigns, as if able to produce their peaks it certainly makes it difficult for the rest.

However you would be a brave man to suggest she doesn't have more to come, if that's the case, she is to be taken very seriously.

She may find the 1200m too short and she is likely to be better over further, however I am certainly enamoured with Arcadia Queen.

Racing and Sports

Simon Dinopoulos

Senior Handicapper

Sydney-born Simon Dinopoulos joined Racing and Sports' as a form analyst in 2012.

Under the tutelage of Gary Crispe and Adam Blencowe, Simon has quickly established himself as a respected member of the R&S ratings team, with a key focus on NSW, Western Australia and Singapore.

As a journalist he contributes stories for the R&S website, while also priding himself on being a part of the data management sector. Simon has helped establish and maintain Racing And Sports’ global database – the most comprehensive privately owned racing database in the world.

Simon can be heard on Sky Sports Radio - Racings HQ (Friday/Saturday mornings) giving his selections for the weekend's racing.