3 minute read

An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Listed $160,000 Robrick Lodge Winter Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

1. Polly Grey (Chris Waller): We can safely suggest that it's not going to be wet enough for the rising nine-year-old mare to be effective at 1400m, even first-up. She's back after snatching a valuable Group 1 placing in New Zealand back on Boxing Day and while fitter for a couple of recent trials she faces a task from the wide gate.

2. Ucalledit (Kris Lees): Had the Civic Stakes run to perfection for him as he enjoyed a soft run just off the pace and pounced just at the right time to win by half a length or so. Different set up for him this time around, having drawn out, and he rises 2.5kg but that race does look to be the major form pointer. Taksu won the Civic and Winter Stakes last year and this gelding could easily match that.

3. Tamahere (Annabel Neasham): Where would she have finished in the Civic if she didn't run into a wall of horses early in the straight and get stopped in her tracks? She was three back on the fence in the run and as the leaders started to come back she found herself in all sorts of trouble. The third horse stole a run along the fence that she missed out on and she went to the line not tested. Drifter out to $31 that day but looked unlucky not to finish closer. Draws well again and has to stay under notice.

4. Baby Rider (Bjorn Baker): Appears likely to be running in Sunday's South Grafton Cup. He was an $81 chance in the Civic Stakes and endured a three wide run without cover for the most part before knocking up to run tenth. Finds this short now and wide gate no help.

5. Cisco Bay (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Model of consistency who scored a big win over this course before going a month between runs and again running on strongly into third in the Civic, sneaking along the fence. He'll drift back again and it comes down to factors like track pattern and tempo as to whether he can pick them up. As we saw two runs back if he gets it run to suit he's a major player.

6. Hosier (Mark Minervini): First run for new stable having formerly been in the Kris Lees camp. He's an on pacer who will push forward and enjoys the sting out of the track, usually a soft 6 or worse, and that's where he produces his best. Fitter for a couple of trials and has a 50 per cent first-up win strike rate. The question is, if he does line up, will it be wet enough for him to stretch right out.

7. Art Cadeau (Terry Robinson): It's been a little while since we've seen his best but you have to mark the Civic Stakes as a complete wipeout for him. He was stuck wide early and wasn't settling so pressed forward to sit outside the leader. When the sprint was on he was squeezed out as the runs came and while he wouldn't have been contesting the finish he wouldn't have dropped out either. He's the map horse this time around getting a perfect trial on paper and it's D-Day for him.

8. Longvillers (Chris Waller): He might have beaten two horses home but there was some merit in his first-up run in the Civic and he'll have a completely different set up. Went right back from a wide gate fresh and worked home evenly, with the last 50m his best. Gate one should see him put into the race earlier though he hasn't won below a mile as yet so there's a chance this will be a flashing light run for next time. That said, throw him in everything.

9. Brigantine (SCRATCHED).

10. Matthew Flinders (Annabel Neasham): Import making his Australian debut and first run since October 2021. He was a miler to 2000m horse in Europe but is accomplished enough at this trip to get interested if there's any support. Given three trials in the past five weeks and there was noticeable improvement in the latest of them. Probably finds himself buried back in the field on the fence but he's one to be wary of.

11. Cotehele (John O'Shea): Measured right up to this sort of race with a gallant fifth in the Civic Stakes where he arguably hit the front a bit too soon. He had a perfect run in the one-one after getting across from a tricky gate and loomed at the 200m then wanted to lay in a bit. He was swamped late and beaten just on a length. Kinder draw this time and similarly weighted. Likely runner in the South Grafton Cup.

12. Blaze A Trail (SCRATCHED).

13. Brookspire (Chris Waller): There's no doubt this mare is good enough to come away with a win in this field, she's just become a bit hit and miss since she charged through the grades in the summer of 2021/22. She won the Magic Millions F&M feature in January then resurfaced to finish midfield behind Comrade Rosa in a Listed race at Eagle Farm at the end of May where she was a $6 chance and had every hope. Lands in the right spot again and it's a matter of whether she puts in.

14. King Of Hastings (Anthony & Sam Freedman): His two Sydney runs this time in have been excellent and he was brave in the Civic after copping a decent bump midway down the straight. He picked himself up and was arguably finishing better than anything on the line in second place. The draw is of no consequence to him if he rolls forward, there's little pressure underneath especially if there's a significant scratching or two which seems likely. Take plenty of beating.

15. Acquitted (Kris Lees): His record says he'll want a heavy track to be winning but there was nothing wrong with his midfield finish in the Civic, he hit the line pretty well late and beaten under three lengths. And he placed on a good 4 in the Scone Cup. Has a softer draw this time but generally he doesn't make use of them and probably still settles in the second half. He's a place chance.

16. Lady Of Luxury (Bjorn Baker): Her form ties in with King Of Hastings having beaten him two runs back getting 5.5kg from that horse then in the Civic she was charging at the line late suggesting she might want a mile now. That was at level weights with him. It's likely she'll be conceding a start again but she's clearly come back in good form and can't be left out of the main chances.

17. Barbie's Fox (Ben & Jd Hayes): Brings a different form line into the race and was a bit unlucky not to pick up St Lawrence and win at Caulfield over this trip, she was held up when the runs were made and just ran out of time. She's an interesting runner here and it's certainly a winnable Listed race. Tends to be at her best settling in the second half and running on and would be an each-way chance.

SELECTIONS:
14 KING OF HASTINGS
3 Tamahere
5 Cisco Bay
2 Ucalledit